Expert warns Ukraine is heading into a critical crisis

Ukrainian forces are in for a tough winter

Ukrainian forces will face heavy fighting in the coming months if peace negotiations with Russia fail to score a breakthrough, according to a recent intelligence assessment. Kyiv could be in trouble, but a bad peace might be even worse.

Ending the nearly four-year war

Peace negotiations have brought the idea that an end to the almost four-year war could be in sight. However, it's clear that Russia currently holds all the cards, and Washington is willing to lean on Ukraine to give up critical concessions.

Will Ukraine accept US terms?

Whether Kyiv will accept peace terms dictated by the United States is unclear, but what is clear is that if a peace settlement is not reached soon, Ukraine faces months of heavy defensive fighting ahead, according to one intel assessment.

An intelligence assessment

Colonel Ants Kiviselg is the head of Estonia’s Defense Forces Intelligence Center, and he noted that while Russian forces have made minor advances, Ukraine will be in for a very hard winter if peace negotiations don’t yield a breakthrough soon.

The main front is encircled

According to Colonel Kiviselg, who was cited by the Estonian public broadcaster ERR in a recent report, the main region where Russian forces have focused their offensive, the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad front, is now essentially encircled by Russia.

Ukrainian forces are in trouble

“The supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are under heavy pressure, and it is impossible to hold these settlements for long under such conditions," Colonel Kiviselg reported, according to a translation of his remarks from Ukrainska Pravda.

Increasing pressure elsewhere

Russian forces have also increased their pressure on other critical areas of the frontline in key regions like the Vovchansk and Kupiansk fronts in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as on the city of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, and near Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russia is achieving local goals

"Ultimately, Ukrainian forces are under severe pressure, and Russia has achieved local tactical gains,” Colonel Kiviselg explained. “Moreover, Russia still maintains superiority in manpower, artillery, ammunition, and equipment."

Heavy defensive battles

Colonel Kiviselg added that "if the talks do not result in a breakthrough acceptable to Ukraine, the frontline situation will remain extremely tense, and Ukrainian troops will have to engage in heavy defensive battles in the coming months."

A previous warning

According to Ukrainska Pravda, the Estonian Ministry of Defense has previously warned that the critical defensive Ukrainian cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast could fall to Russian forces in December. Russia has already claimed one win.

Putin’s Pokrovsk claims

On December 2nd, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia had captured Pokrovsk, marking what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted was the end of a 20-month campaign to take the critical Ukrainian defensive stronghold.

The situation is unclear

However, Ukrainian authorities refuted Putin’s claim. Even so, ISW analysts noted that “most military analysts believe Pokrovsk will eventually succumb,” to Russian forces, and added that “when it does, it will mark a Pyrrhic victory for Russia that is unlikely by itself to unravel Ukraine’s defense in the country’s east.”

Moscow’s 20-month campaign

According to the ISW, Russia’s 20-month campaign to take Pokrovsk only saw Russian forces advance roughly 25 miles (40 kilometers). Casualties have been high. However, there is no exact number of Moscow’s killed and wounded.

Heavy losses around Pokrovsk

The Center for European Policy Analysis reported in early November that Ukrainian commanders believed roughly 110,000 Russian personnel were concentrated around Pokrovsk at the time. The Washington-based think tank noted that daily average losses peaked at 700-800 at the time.

Putting things into perspective

During a November 7th press briefing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that roughly 25,000 Russians had been confirmed killed in October. A large majority of those losses reportedly happened on the Pokrovsk front, according to United24.

Pokrovsk will fall if it hasn’t yet

Whether Pokrovsk is taken now or fully captured in the coming months doesn’t matter. What does matter is that even if peace isn’t achieved, and even if Russia does up the intensity of its fighting, Ukrainian forces aren’t likely to break.

Ukraine has a difficult road ahead

However, the fight ahead will be tough. Moscow has already turned to its winter tactic of targeting Ukraine’s energy grid. Moreover, Kyiv is facing the possibility that Washington will withdraw what limited help it still provides if Ukraine shirks a peace deal proposal.

The only thing we know for now

What will happen in Ukraine in the coming months is still unclear. But Colonel Kiviselg’s assessment that Ukraine will face heavy defensive fighting is likely to prove true, especially since the Kremlin has signaled that it isn’t very interested in the peace plan currently on offer from Donald Trump and his administration.

NATO chief: Prepare for war with Russia

The West faces war with Russia on a scale not seen since the days of “our grandparents and great-grandparents”, the head of warned on Thursday.

, the Nato secretary-general, said had chosen the alliance as his “next target”, in some of his strongest warnings yet on the prospect of war spreading across Europe.

“Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured,” Mr Rutte said in Berlin.

“We need to be crystal clear about the threat. We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way.”

The assessment came towards the end of a frantic week of diplomacy, as Ukraine and its European allies submitted a new peace proposal to the Trump administration that will be discussed in this weekend.

Donald Trump accused European leaders of being “weak” earlier this week and has outlined plans to pivot away from traditional security alliances on the Continent.

The US president is “extremely frustrated” with both Kyiv and Moscow, , his press spokesman, said on Thursday.

She added: “He doesn’t want any more talk. He wants action. He wants this war to come to an end.”

There were reports on Thursday of tensions forming between European leaders, with , Italy’s prime minister, reportedly putting pressure on Kyiv to accept “painful” concessions, apparently on Washington’s behalf.

Meanwhile in Moscow, the warned that it considered British soldiers operating in Ukraine as “legitimate targets”, following the death of a British paratrooper in an accident away from the front lines.

“For us, these so-called ‘peacekeepers’ will immediately become legitimate targets, everyone should understand this,” said , Putin’s foreign minister.

Nato leaders have warned that Russia could attack a member state on its eastern flank, such as , within just a few years of the end of the current conflict in Ukraine.

Some countries, notably and , have introduced new military training for volunteers to improve defences. They are all also reassessing the availability of air raid shelters.

Later on Thursday, the disclosed it had recently tracked a Russian submarine, the , as it sailed from the North Sea into the . A Royal Navy Merlin helicopter and an RFA Tidesurge tanker monitored the submarine during the three-day operation.

In Berlin, , the German chancellor, announced that Ukraine had offered new proposals on giving up territory to Russia in the hopes of securing a peace deal.

At a press conference with Mr Rutte, Mr Merz said that a new offer on land concessions had been transferred to Washington, without giving details of its contents.

“It mainly concerns the question of what territorial concessions Ukraine is prepared to make,” Mr Merz said. He stressed that any decision on land concessions was up to the Ukrainian government and its people.

The German chancellor also suggested that talks would be held over the weekend between the US, European leaders and Ukraine to discuss the new proposals.

He said: “If we continue as imagined, there will be talks with the US administration over the weekend and there might be a meeting at the beginning of next week in Berlin. Whether the US administration will take part in the meeting depends on the papers we are working on [at present].”

The offer, drawn up with the support of European leaders, is a revised version of Mr Trump’s 28-point peace plan, which heavily favoured Moscow by requiring Kyiv to give up swathes of territory and reduce the size of its army.

Some proposals suggest Ukraine could, at least partially, withdraw its armed forces from to form a demilitarised zone – but only if Russia agrees to also pull back its own troops from the area, The Telegraph understands.

The idea has been floated among Ukrainian negotiators as they look for a compromise to the US president’s demand for Kyiv to cede Donetsk and Luhansk as part of a peace deal.

A report on Thursday said Ms Meloni had urged , her Ukrainian counterpart, to accept “painful concessions” for a peace deal.

According to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, tensions surfaced between the two leaders as Ms Meloni pressed Mr Zelensky to accede to US demands.

“There is sufficient evidence indicating that not everything went smoothly and that some differences were clearly expressed for the first time by both parties,” the newspaper stated.

During the Berlin press conference, Mr Merz said it would be a mistake to force Ukrainian leaders into a peace deal their people could not accept.

“The work we are doing together remains very difficult. Putin continues to ruthlessly mount his brutal war against the civilian population. At the same time, he is playing for time,” Mr Merz said.

“We want a ceasefire that is backed by robust legal and material guarantees. It would be a mistake to force the Ukrainian president into a peace that his population will not support after four years of suffering and dying.”

Mr Merz also sought to play down reports of a rift between the US and Europe on the Ukraine peace talks and the wider issue of America’s role in defending European security interests.

“We have no reason to doubt the agreements we have made with the US within the Nato alliance,” said Mr Merz, while Mr Rutte also said it was clear the US remained committed to Europe.

On Thursday evening, the Kremlin announced that Putin had spoken with , the president of Venezuela, as the latter faces intense pressure from Mr Trump to stand down.

Putin sought to “reassure” Mr Maduro of Russian support, as the US military builds up forces in the Caribbean and American troops seized a Venezuelan oil tanker.

In Europe, the focus will shift over the weekend to Paris, where the details of the latest peace proposal are expected to be ironed out.

Ukraine is also keen to prevent talks over territorial concessions from happening without parallel discussions on the shape of the security guarantees the US could offer to deter a future Russian invasion.

Officials close to the negotiations have described “incredible pressure” by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to agree to a unilateral withdrawal from the Donbas before any other agreements are struck.

On Thursday, Russia said it had made fresh gains on the front line in Ukraine, where Putin is taking territory slowly and at a heavy cost to his troops.

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for Putin

Putin is thrilled with Trump

In a shift that has sparked concern across European capitals, the United States unveiled its new National Security Strategy in December 2025. According to The Guardian, the strategy document has notably diverged from previous affirmations of the transatlantic alliance. It characterizes Europe primarily as a challenge rather than a partner, citing issues such as "civilizational erasure," the impacts of mass migration, demographic challenges, political censorship, and a diminishing sense of identity within European societies.

"A gift for Putin"

This criticism of Europe, combined with Trump’s personal public attacks on European leaders, does more than strain relations: it plays directly into Moscow’s hands. As one analysis by CNN bluntly puts it, the deepening rift between Washington and its European allies is “a gift for Putin.”

A big change in priorities

The Washington Post highlights that the 2025 National Security Strategy marks a radical departure, not just in tone but in priorities. The United States under Trump now vows to re-orient its global presence toward the Americas, reviving what the administration calls a “Monroe Doctrine-style” approach for the Western Hemisphere.

Not reliable allies?

Europe, meanwhile, is cast in far harsher terms. According to Defense News, the strategy accuses European governments of allowing declining birth rates, limiting free speech, suppressing political opposition, and pursuing migration policies that undermine social cohesion, all of which, it argues, weaken their long-term reliability as U.S. allies.

Endorsing "patriotic European parties"

Moreover, the document explicitly endorses “patriotic European parties” as “political allies,” which sounds much like an open invitation to far-right, nationalist forces across the continent.

Russia no longer appears to be a principal adversary

This is not just a rhetorical shift: it signals a strategic recalibration. Where previous U.S. strategy would treat Russia as a principal adversary, the 2025 document relatively de-emphasizes Russia and even suggests pressing European governments to accept a rapid settlement in Ukraine and re-establish “strategic stability” with Moscow.

Trump's view on Europe: "weak" and "decaying"

In an interview with Politico on December 9 regarding the strategy’s release, Trump did not hold back. He described Europe as “weak” and “decaying,” blaming its perceived decline on immigration and a political culture overly concerned with being “politically correct.” He warned that if Europe “keeps going the way it’s going, many countries … will not be viable countries longer.

Trump said Zelensky needs to accept he's lost the war

During the Politico interview, President Trump also claimed that Russia has the “upper hand” in its war on Ukraine and added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needed to “start accepting things” regarding what Trump believes Ukraine needs to give up to end the conflict. “He’s going to have to get on the ball and start accepting things, you know, when you’re losing,” Trump said.

Dangerous comments

Comments like this from a U.S. president don’t just irritate diplomats; they weaken trust in Europe’s institutions at a time when political and military unity is especially important.

Kremlin spokesman says the National Security Strategy is "consistent with our vision"

From Moscow’s perspective, the unraveling of transatlantic unity is like a gift from the gods. In fact, CNN reports that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was pleased with the release of the 2025 National Security Strategy, calling it “consistent with our vision.”

Appealing to Moscow

Peskov elaborated further on December 8, saying: "The nuance we see in the new concept certainly appeals to us. It speaks of the need for dialogue and building constructive, good relations."

European cohesion at risk

Trump's tougher tone toward Europe undermines European cohesion. If many Europeans, including public figures and leaders, begin to question the value of their alliance with the U.S., the sense of shared purpose that underpins collective defence weakens.

A weak Europe will embolden Putin

By presenting Europe as internally divided, weakened, and culturally unstable, the new U.S. posture reduces the perceived cost to Russia of continued aggression. The Washington Post notes that if Europe appears unreliable, unable even to stand together, then Russia’s military adventurism becomes less risky. The fact that the U.S. now prioritizes strategic stability with Russia further validates Moscow’s long-term aspirations.

Trump's words fit in with Kremlin strategy

The Guardian notes that boosting nationalist, anti-immigration, and far-right groups in Europe fits in neatly with the Kremlin’s long-standing strategy of stirring identity politics and division within the Western alliance. It is a well-known tactic Russia has used for years to weaken European unity. As former Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins told Reuters, “the happiest country reading this is Russia.”

High stakes and tough questions

For European leaders, the stakes are high. The transatlantic security system, built on shared values, collective defense, and mutual trust, is under new strain. The possibility that the U.S. might pull back or reduce its commitment forces Europe to confront tough questions: Can it defend itself if it has to? And can the bond between Europe and the U.S. survive the political and ideological rifts made wider by Trump’s approach?

Is Trump trying to manipulate Europe?

Some critics argue that this strategy amounts to outside interference, encouraging far-right movements and reshaping Europe’s politics from afar. For Moscow, though, the advantage is obvious: a Europe that is more divided, less confident, and less focused on standing up to Russian aggression.

Changing Europe's defence strategies

Since coming into office in January 2025, the shift in U.S. policy under Trump has done more than generate diplomatic friction; it has reshaped Europe’s security landscape. By calling Europe a continent in decline, supporting far-right movements, and downplaying the threat from Russia, Washington has left a strategic gap.

Trump's big, beautiful gift for Putin

And for Russian President Vladimir Putin, this is a beautiful thing: a lack of unity among his principal adversaries is a great advantage. In this sense, the Trump-Europe rift is not just a policy blunder for Brussels and NATO: it is a welcome gift for the Kremlin.

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Putin unveils Poseidon: Tidal wave torpedo warns of nuclear Armageddon

Russia stunned the world by claiming a successful test of Poseidon, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed underwater drone-torpedo described by the Kremlin as an 'unstoppable' new weapon capable of demolishing coastal cities. In a statement on Oct. 29, 2025, Vladimir Putin said the device had, for the first time, activated its nuclear propulsion system following a submarine launch. He asserted that the torpedo could travel distances and depths beyond existing defences, warning there was 'nothing like this, nothing able to intercept it'.

The revelation of this fact has impacted the different sectors of government, military analysts, and strategists all at once. The unveiling of Poseidon, as well as the extensive statements connected to it, represents a new level of underwater nuclear power. The situation with Russia, the West, and NATO is getting more and more tense and the underwater weapon's ability to change the naval balance is raising concerns.

What Poseidon Is and What Putin Claims It Can Do

Poseidon, known in NATO parlance as 'Kanyon', is described as a 20-metre-long, roughly two-metre-diameter unmanned underwater vehicle, weighing up to 100 tonnes, propelled by a compact nuclear reactor. Some sources claim that Poseidon is one of the 'super weapons' that was revealed by Russia before.

According to Russian government accounts, once launched from a specialised submarine, the drone can travel for thousands of kilometres, dive to depths of up to 1,000 metres, and approach enemy shores undetected. Its warhead is believed to be of multi-megaton yield, with many external analysts estimating around two megatons.

During the October 2025 announcement, Putin emphasised the weapon's strategic importance, calling the test a 'huge success' and saying that 'there is nothing like this in the world'. He said it represents a class of threats designed to bypass traditional missile defences and strike coastal infrastructure or major cities from below the seas.

Russian-supported media and analysts have even gone so far as to proclaim that Poseidon might cause enormous 'radioactive tsunamis' to annihilate whole coastlines. The dramatic imagery alongside such alerts has not only grabbed the headlines but also created a climate of fear on a mass scale.

Poseidon's Plausible Threat: The Scientific Debate

Western defence analysts and nuclear experts caution that while Poseidon's technical attributes are concerning, many of the more apocalyptic claims, such as 500-metre tsunami waves, lack a credible scientific basis. Underwater nuclear explosions, even at high yields, disperse energy radially rather than focus it directionally, limiting wave height and range.

Models suggest that a detonation near a coast could inflict catastrophic damage to ports, naval bases or low-lying districts and produce radioactive contamination. Yet the idea that a single explosion could produce a tsunami capable of submerging entire cities remains highly speculative.

More realistic assessments characterise Poseidon as a strategic deterrent, not a guaranteed 'doomsday weapon.' Its value may lie more in fear, uncertainty, and pressure, forcing adversaries to expand underwater detection and naval defence systems, than in actual deployment.

The conception of the weapon, which is a nuclear-powered, deep-sea diving automatic drone, causes it to be a challenge to the existing arms control regimes that have mainly centred on missiles and aircraft. Its ability to escape radar and missiles places a greater difficulty on defence strategies than before.

Moreover, Russia has reportedly begun building specialised submarine carriers intended to launch Poseidon drones. The entry into service of such platforms would signal a shift from conceptual threat to concrete capability.

The October 2025 test comes shortly after Russia demonstrated a separate nuclear-powered cruise missile, deepening concern that Moscow is investing heavily in a new generation of strategic delivery systems beyond traditional ballistic missiles.

For the entire global community of government officials and military strategists, Poseidon is a multifaceted contemporary problem: a missile system that probably wouldn't get used through firing, but its very presence could alter the balance of power, arms regulation, and the safeguarding of large urban coastal areas in favour of the naval side.

Russia’s grim gain: Fallen soldiers boost Putin’s economy

Clever ploy

According to the Wall Street Journal and Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, families of soldiers who die in service and are at least 35 years old after one year of duty may be entitled to a compensation package of roughly 14.5 million rubles, or about $150,000. This amount includes both the soldier’s salary and a designated death benefit.

Worth more dead than alive

The amount doesn’t include bonuses and insurance payouts, and in some regions of Russia, it’s more than what a man would have earned as a civilian if he worked until the age of 60.

An attractive offer for recruits

Moreover, in order to attract the largest number of recruits to the Ukrainian front, Vladimir Putin decided last July to double the monthly salary of contract soldiers.

Ten times the average salary

This amount increased from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles (a little over 4,000 euros or 4,400 US dollars), the equivalent of ten times the average salary in Russia.

A commitment bonus

According to French newspaper ‘Le Monde’, a bonus of 1.2 million rubles (a little over 12,000 euros or 13,300 US dollars) is paid to contract soldiers when they enlist. Enough to attract the youth of a country where the income of a part of the population remains low.

Cooperation of local authorities

Local authorities are involved in the aggressive recruitment campaigns. ‘Euronews’ reported that the Krasnodar region, a major supplier of recruits for the army, has increased the enlistment bonus to the equivalent of €16,000 ($17,700).

Social benefits

In addition to this tax-free income, there are a number of privileges for soldiers and their families, such as preferential mortgage rates, easier access to universities and high retirement pensions.

More profitable

Recalling the existence of a death bonus of up to 11 million rubles (around 110,500 euros or 122,000 US dollars), ‘Le Monde’ indicates that "a strange economic model has thus emerged, according to which a dead Russian brings more to his family than a living Russian."

The ‘death economy’

This phenomenon led Vladislav Inozemtsev, a Russian economist, to speak of a "death economy" driven by the income of fighters and investments in weapons.

Colossal expenses

According to the US-based expert, the Russian authorities currently spend between 1.5 and 2 trillion rubles (15.1 to 20.2 billion euros) per year just to pay military bonuses and salaries.

A new reality

"This is unprecedented because Russians have always been sent to the army under duress or out of patriotism. Vladimir Putin has created a completely new reality," Inozemtsev adds.

Avoiding an unpopular mobilization

"Russia is short of volunteers, but it does not want to repeat an unpopular mobilisation. That is why it continues to increase signing bonuses," Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer at King's College London, told ‘Euronews’.

Massive state intervention

How are such revenues possible in a country hit hard by Western sanctions? This is explained by a change in the economic model, characterized by massive state intervention in the economy.

A new model

Isolated from a big part of the world, Russia has turned to a war economy model in which the state supports growth through military spending and the payment of high incomes to part of the population.

Massive injections of money

According to the German newspaper ‘Die Welt’, Russia enjoyed an economic growth of 3.6% in 2023. The money supply (the amount of money in circulation) increased by 8.5% in the same year, after a 20% increase in 2022, with high inflation as a counterpart.

Growth driven by public spending

According to an analysis cited by the newspaper from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, a British research center, Russian economic expansion is linked to "aggressive military spending and consumption-driven growth."

Artificially stimulated consumption

The rise in consumption is itself "fueled by a sharp increase in payments to military personnel in war zones and their families, as well as by increases in pensions and social benefits."

A closed boiler full of money

Interviewed by the German media, Russian economist Oleg Viougin described his country as a "closed cauldron full of money", in reference to the increase in income and wealth since the start of the war.

The limits of a model

This short-term growth should not, however, overshadow the limits of the new Russian economic model. Starting with inflation, recently estimated at more than 9% over a year by the Rosstat statistics institute.

A shortage of labor

Moreover, the mobilization of young men and the exile of Russian executives abroad are leading to a shortage of labor. And the massive recruitment of the army and the defense industry are penalizing the private sector.

Competition between employers

"The Russian army must now compete with the Russian military industry, which is booming and also hungry for workers," adds ‘Euronews’. The outlet describes a dilemma for the country's elite between recruiting soldiers and workers.

Lack of innovation

"The government is injecting a lot of money into the arms industry, but without innovating," says Alexandra Prokopenko, a visiting researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, quoted by ‘Le Monde’.

A strong constraint

"Human resources are a real constraint. The low unemployment rate is not due to the success of the Kremlin's economic policy; in reality, many economic sectors are short of workers," the expert adds.

Hydrocarbon revenues

Indeed, Russia's status as "the world's largest exporter of raw materials" gives it "the revenues needed to produce weapons and pay the military sent to the front."

No Plan B for Russia

"Returning to a situation of peace, in which such expenditure would be unjustified, and demobilizing an army of criminals would prove very dangerous," the economist adds.

Danger remains for Ukraine

According to him, Moscow can maintain this morbid economic model "for at least five to six years, which is much longer than Ukraine can endure." So Kyiv cannot yet count on the possible exhaustion of the invader.

Trump has declared civilisational war on Europe. It won’t be easy – but here’s how to fight back

Three decades after political philosopher Francis Fukuyama declared the End of History and the “universalisation of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government”, the democratic model is under attack in many parts of the world, not least here in Europe. Populists bent on weakening the rule of law, rolling back human rights protections, subjugating the judiciary and cowing independent journalism are amplified by anything-goes social media algorithms that promote anger and polarisation over rational discourse.

They have now received a mandate from the Trump administration, which effectively declared civilisational war on the EU and its values in its National Security Strategy.

The growing failure, meanwhile, of our market democracies to deliver affordable housing, universal quality education and healthcare, and security of employment – what the economist Joseph Stiglitz calls the “inequality emergency” – is alienating many young and working-class people from democracy, fuelling the rise of illiberalism and authoritarianism.

The combination of grievance-based identity politics and what some call techno-fascism poses a danger to our democratic system of governance. It is tearing at the fabric of our liberal polities, reversing women’s and gay rights, and loosening the employment and welfare protections that are part of Europe’s social contract.

In the past 12 months alone, enemies of liberal democracy have undermined the integrity of elections, harmed the ability of governments to implement evidence-based policy on issues such as climate change and vaccination, and weakened the role of watchdogs such as the courts, digital regulators and anti-corruption authorities.

Yet we are much better at describing and analysing – cynics say “admiring” – the problem than at crafting effective strategies to combat the forces undermining democracy. A range of suggestions for how to fight back was outlined at the annual conference of the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels last week. But each one of them is fraught with difficulty.

Many people argued that the European Union and key national authorities such as Ireland’s communication regulator should speed up enforcing the EU’s existing digital laws. The EU has the power to fine US tech giants for failing to moderate and remove illegal content, disclose their algorithms to researchers and regulators, and protect the private data of European users.

Why is enforcement taking so long? Well, because of the rule of law. “This is a due process system,” Renate Nikolay deputy-director for communications at the European Commission said. She rejects allegations that the EU is deregulating or lowering standards as part of its drive to simplify EU legislation, or going slow out of fear of threatened US trade retaliation.

The commission has issued seven so-called preliminary findings against tech giants such as Apple, Meta, Google and TikTok, accusing them of breaching EU tech rules over issues such as denying researchers access to platforms’ data, ability to notify illegal content and challenge moderation decisions. Its most recent action was to slap a €120m fine on Elon Musk’s X (formerly known as Twitter) for making users pay for blue tick authentification without doing any effective verification.

Related: Trump’s new doctrine confirms it. Ready or not, Europe is on its own | Georg Riekeles and Varg Folkman

Technology, especially AI, is advancing faster than EU regulation. The EU’s effort to prevent big tech undermining the European way of democracy is not exactly helped when Ireland, the low-tax country where many US tech companies elected to put their European headquarters, appoints a former Meta lobbyist as one of its three top data protection regulators.

For some, especially on the left, the key to preserving liberal democracy is to address people’s bread-and-butter needs for affordable housing, well-paid jobs and effective public services. They contend that the main reason for the rise of the extreme right and radical left, and their attraction for young people and old industrial workers, is the failure of the mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties that have governed for decades to deliver on these issues. In this telling, those who have lost out under neoliberalism and globalisation are wreaking revenge on liberal democracy.

The trouble is that solutions to the housing crisis reside at national and local level, not under an EU roof, and they are hard to deliver quickly because of planning regulations, nimbyism and cost. Many European social democrats and leftists are excited about the New York mayoral election victory of Zohran Mamdani on a laser-focused platform of free bus travel, rent control, public non-profit grocery stores in poor neighbourhoods, free childcare and building more affordable housing. They also point to the success of Spain’s leftwing government, which has raised social benefits and welcomed immigration while presiding over the fastest growing economy in Europe.

Yet that has not stopped the growth of far-right populism. Spain’s anti-migrant Vox party has seen its support jump from 12.4% at the 2023 general election to almost 20% now. Social democratic parties are losing ground across much of Europe.

Some democracy campaigners see the key to turning the tide in appealing to public fears by depicting the populists as a danger to the European way of life and prosperity. Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the EPC, argues that liberal democrats must start behaving as if they were in an existential fight, because they are. “Why are we not doing anything offensive, attacking the other side’s weaknesses, their disdain for the people?” he asked.

Yet exposing past Russian financial support for Marine Le Pen’s hard right National Rally (RN) party in France, or convicting a senior figure in the UK’s rightwing populist Reform party for acting as a Kremlin agent of influence has not dimmed those movements’ popularity. Nor has exhuming past racist statements by their candidates or highlighting the incoherence of their economic platforms caused more than passing embarrassment, if that.

Dramatising a dramatic situation carries its own dangers. Framing the last US presidential election as an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism – however accurate that may have turned out to be – did not swing voters behind Democrat Kamala Harris. Donald Trump triumphed by playing on public anger over the cost of living, immigration and perceived threats to family values and masculinity. Nor did warnings of massive economic damage, which opponents branded Project Fear, save David Cameron from losing the 2016 referendum over leaving the EU.

An alternative way propounded by some democracy campaigners is simply to do politics better and learn from the campaigns of the extremists. “We need to get back to grassroots politics,” said Lisa Witter, CEO of the Better Politics Foundation, a non-partisan centre that trains young political pros and activists in modern campaign techniques.

Populist parties have become trailblazers in the use of TikTok, Instagram and other social media platforms. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party makes huge and effective use of paid online influencers. In Romania, the hard-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party is better at using playful apps to attract and reward young activists, and more assiduous at the shoe-leather politics of leafleting marketplaces and doorstep campaigning.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron outflanked the mainstream parties by using grassroots activism in his rise to the French presidency in 2017, and Dutch left-liberal leader Rob Jetten’s D66 party successfully used some of the same techniques to score a surprise win with a positive, pro-European message recently. But centrist populism is no guarantee of success, especially for parties that have long been in coalition governments.

Perhaps some combination of the four can save Europe’s liberal democracies, but for the moment the tide seems to be flowing strongly in the other direction.

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