Deadly liver disease is now striking non-drinkers in record numbers - most don't know they have it

Liver disease is surging globally and could affect nearly 1.8 billion people by 2050, research suggests.

Once thought to be a condition that mainly affected heavy drinkers, cases in people who rarely or never drink alcohol have soared in recent decades.

This form – now known as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease – is driven instead by obesity, type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure.

It often develops silently, with no symptoms for years, meaning many people have no idea they are living with it until significant liver damage has already occurred.

Left unchecked, fat builds up in the liver, triggering inflammation and scarring over time.

In some cases, this can progress to cirrhosis – where healthy tissue is replaced by permanent scar tissue – as well as liver failure and even liver cancer.

Crucially, MASLD is also considered the liver manifestation of metabolic syndrome – a cluster of conditions including excess body fat, high blood pressure and poor blood sugar control – which significantly raises the risk of heart attacks and strokes.

A major analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study, published in The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, estimates 1.3 billion people were living with MASLD in 2023 – a 143 per cent increase since 1990.

That figure is expected to rise to around 1.8 billion in the next 25 years, making it one of the fastest-growing health problems worldwide.

The surge is being driven largely by rising obesity, worsening blood sugar control and increasingly sedentary lifestyles.

Some regions are particularly hard hit, with North Africa and the Middle East recording rates well above the global average.

While more cases are now being diagnosed, the overall health impact has remained relatively stable – something researchers believe may reflect earlier detection and improved management slowing progression to more severe disease.

However, experts warn the long-term risks remain serious.

If left undetected and unmanaged, MASLD can progress to cirrhosis, liver failure and liver cancer.

The study also highlights a worrying shift, with more younger adults now developing the condition – particularly in low- and middle-income countries where diets and lifestyles are changing rapidly.

Researchers say the findings underline the urgent need for stronger prevention, earlier diagnosis and greater public health action to curb the growing global burden of fatty liver disease.

The news comes as weight-loss medications such as Mounjaro (tirzepatide) are showing promising results in the treatment of MASLD.

Studies suggest these drugs can significantly reduce liver fat and improve inflammation and in some cases may be associated with improvement in liver scarring in early disease.

By supporting substantial weight loss and better blood sugar control, they may help slow or potentially reverse disease progression, although they are not yet widely approved for this use in the UK.

What is fatty liver disease?

MASLD, NAFLD and fatty liver disease are different names for the same condition.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a long-lasting liver condition caused by having too much fat in the liver.

It is closely linked with being overweight as well as conditions such as type 2 diabetes and heart and circulatory disease.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously called NASH) is a more serious stage of MASLD.

In a small number of people it can lead to liver cancer or liver failure.

The main treatment is eating a well-balanced diet, being physically active and (if needed) losing weight.

Research shows these can reduce liver fat and in some cases reverse MASLD.

Trump announces 50% tariffs... €379 billion of EU exports at risk

Donald Trump has just escalated the trade conflict. With a proposed 50 percent tariff on all EU goods, the stakes have suddenly become much higher. This is not a small dispute. The United States and the European Union trade over one and a half trillion euros worth of goods and services every year. Now that relationship is under pressure. Europe has three main options. Do nothing and hope for negotiations. Respond with targeted tariffs. Or escalate into a full scale trade war. Each option comes with risks. Acting too weak could invite more pressure. Acting too strong could damage both economies. The situation is becoming a test of political will. And neither side seems ready to back down.

CNN —

President Donald Trump on Friday threatened a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union, citing a lack of progress in current trade negotiations.

“Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable,” he wrote in a Truth Social post Friday morning.

“Our discussions with them are going nowhere!” Trump wrote.


“Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.”

But later Friday, at an executive order signing in the Oval Office, Trump escalated his message to the EU.

“I’m not looking for a deal,” he said. “We’ve set the deal — it’s at 50%.”

Trump opened the door to pushing his June 1 deadline further, saying, “If somebody comes in and wants to build a plant here, I can talk to them about a little bit of a delay.”

After a phone call with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Maroš Šefčovič, European Commissioner for Trade, said a deal between the EU and the US must be based on “mutual respect, and not threats.”

“The EU’s fully engaged, committed to securing a deal that works for both,” he wrote in a post on X Friday, adding that the European Commission “remains ready to work in good faith.”

Shortly after Trump’s Truth Social post on Friday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox News interview that the “EU proposals have not been of the same quality that we’ve seen from our other important trading partners.”

“I’m not going to negotiate on TV, but I would hope that this would light a fire under the EU,” Bessent said, adding that the “EU has a collective action problem.”

The three major European stock market indexes fell sharply after Trump’s post: The benchmark STOXX 600 index was down 1.7%. Germany’s DAX fell 2.4% and France’s CAC index slid 2.2%. London’s FTSE index was 1% down. US stocks also slid, with the Dow opening lower by 480 points, or 1.15%. Stocks came off their lows after Bessent said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Friday that he expects US trade representatives to meet in person with Chinese officials again to continue trade negotiations following a temporary pause in higher tariff rates.

The tariff Trump is considering slapping on the EU is more than double the size of the 20% initial “reciprocal” tariff that was briefly in place in April before he swiftly paused those tariffs to allow for further negotiations.

The pause is set to expire on July 9. Since the pause, the only trade deal that’s been announced is with the United Kingdom. Bessent declined to share in the earlier Fox interview which country could be next to ink a deal with the US. However, he said talks are “far along with India,” and many Asian countries have presented “very good deals.”

“There are 18 important trading partners and, I would say, with the exception of the EU, most are negotiating in very good faith,” he said. Later in the Bloomberg interview he said he believes “over the next couple of weeks we’re going to have several large deals announced.”

Trump’s qualms with the EU

As he highlighted in his Truth Social post, the president takes particular issue with “non-monetary trade barriers,” as he has repeatedly called them; as well as countries or trading blocs that run trade deficits with the US. Those occur when the US purchases more from another trading partner than that country purchases from the US.

Last year, the US ran a $236 billion trade deficit with the EU, according to US Commerce Department data. That’s higher than the figures Trump cited.

Regarding non-monetary trade barriers, Trump has called out the EU for having value-added taxes (VATs) as well as digital service taxes (DSTs).

VATs are consumption taxes that are calculated such that consumers pay for all taxes that went into building the end product they purchase. However, when the EU exports goods to the US, for instance, a VAT is remitted. Meanwhile, when the US exports goods to the EU, those goods will be charged a VAT.

DSTs tax the gross revenue that online firms collect from offering services to users. A country with a DST would be able to tax all revenue collected by large companies that operate online — even if the business is unprofitable. That can include what they collect from selling data, advertising, as well as payments they receive for subscriptions, software and other kinds of online services users pay for.

American firms, namely Big Tech companies such as Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft, are disproportionately affected by DSTs, according to a report published last year by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

EU countries respond

Earlier this month, the EU previewed a nearly $108 billion retaliatory tariff plan “covering a broad range of industrial and agricultural products” should talks with the US go south, a statement the European Commission published on May 8 said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a separate statement that day that the EU made a “zero-for-zero” tariff offer and is working on a mutually beneficial solution. “But if and where negotiations fail, we also will act.”

“In other words, all instruments, all options stay on the table,” she said.

Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin called Trump’s threat “enormously disappointing,” he said in a statement posted on X on Friday. “I welcomed the pause in tariffs until early July to allow for continued negotiations between the EU and the US, and ideally an agreed outcome.”

He disputed Bessent’s claim that the EU isn’t negotiating in good faith, adding that “tariffs at the level suggested would not only push prices up, they would grievously damage one of the world’s most dynamic and significant trading relationships, as well as disrupting wider global trade.”

French Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said in a Friday post on X that Trump’s threats “do not help at all during the negotiation period between the European Union and the United States.”

“We maintain the same stance: de-escalation but are ready to respond,” he said in a post translated by CNN.

Reigniting the trade war

Trump’s comments came after another trade-related post on Truth Social that threatened a 25% tariff on Apple if it continues to make the iPhone overseas.

The president met with Apple CEO Tim Cook earlier in the week — and also during his trip to the Middle East the week before. Bessent told Fox News on Friday that he also spoke to Cook, and the discussions went well. So it’s unclear what prompted Trump’s morning trade war ramp-up.

Cook had previously said that Apple would relocate iPhone production for the United States to India from China to pay a lower tariff cost. Yet Trump last week and on Friday said he was upset that Apple wasn’t making iPhones in the United States.

Efforts underway for second round of US-Iran talks as US blockade takes effect

The standoff between the United States and Iran deepened Tuesday as the U.S. declared it had blockaded Iran's ports, Tehran threatened to strike targets across the region, and Pakistan said it was racing to bring the sides together for more talks.

Though last week's ceasefire appeared to hold, the showdown over the strait risked reigniting hostilities and deepening the region-wide war's economic fallout.

Talks aimed at permanently ending the conflict — which began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — failed to produce an agreement last weekend, though Pakistan has proposed hosting a second round in the coming days.

Two Pakistani officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter with the press, said the first talks were part of an ongoing diplomatic process rather than a one-off effort.

Two U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic negotiations, said on Monday that discussions were still underway about a new round of talk. They said while the venue, timing and makeup of the delegations had not been decided and that talks could happen Thursday.

The war, now in its seventh week, has jolted markets and rattled the global economy as much shipping has been cut off and airstrikes have torn through military and civilian infrastructure across the region.

The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, more than 2,000 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Thirteen U.S. service members have also been killed.

Blockade takes effect

The U.S. military said on Monday that the blockade applied to vessels going to and from Iranian ports. The blockade could restrict the passage of the few ships that Tehran considers friendly, which have been permitted to traverse the Strait of Hormuz as Iran has curtailed maritime traffic since the start of the war.

Most commercial vessels have avoided the waterway amid Iranian threats, apart from the few allowed to pass through lanes between Iran's islands and coastline.

Both the nature of enforcement and the the extent to which ships will comply remained unclear during its first full day in effect on Tuesday. But there were early signs of hesitation: at least two tankers approaching the strait on Monday turned around shortly after it took effect, vessel tracker MarineTraffic said in a Monday post on X.

Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which a fifth of global oil transits in peacetime, has sent oil prices skyrocketing, pushing up the cost of gasoline, food and other basic goods far beyond the Middle East.

The blockade is intended to pressure Iran, which has exported millions of barrels of oil, mostly to Asia, since the war began. Much of it has likely been carried by so-called dark transits that evade sanctions and oversight, providing cash flow vital to keeping the country running.

Trump on Monday said Iran's control of the strait amounted to blackmail and extortion as the U.S. blockade took effect. He said in a social media post that Iran’s navy had been "completely obliterated” but still had “fast attack ships.”

He warned that “if any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED."

Iran threatened to retaliate against Persian Gulf ports if attacked.

“If you fight, we will fight," Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said in a statement addressed to Trump.

Israel and Lebanon scheduled for talks

Meanwhile, direct talks between Israel and Lebanon were set to begin in Washington on Tuesday, the first such negotiations in decades.

Israel has pressed ahead with its air and ground campaign since last week’s ceasefire in Iran, insisting it does not apply to fighting in Lebanon. It has, however, halted strikes in the country's capital since last Wednesday, after a deadly bombardment that hit several crowded commercial and residential areas in central Beirut, sparking an international outcry and threats by Iran that it would end the ceasefire.

After more than a year of near-daily strikes in southern Lebanon, Israel escalated its offensive in the early days of the war following Hezbollah launching rockets into Israel. The fighting has carved a path of destruction from agricultural towns near the border to Beirut, killing more than 2,000 people and displacing over 1 million, according to Lebanese authorities.

The talks are expected to be preliminary, focused on setting parameters rather than resolving core issues. Lebanese officials have pushed for a ceasefire, while Israel has framed the negotiations around Hezbollah’s disarmament and a potential peace deal, without publicly committing to halting hostilities or withdrawing its forces.

Israel wants Lebanon’s government to assume responsibility for disarming Hezbollah, much like was envisaged in a November 2024 ceasefire. But the militant group has survived efforts to curb its strength for decades and said on Monday that it will not abide by any agreements that may result from the talks.

Is China supplying military weapons to Iran? Beijing breaks silence after Trump warns of 'big problems'

China on Monday flatly denied reports that it supplied or is planning to supply weapons to Iran, as President Donald Trump warned Beijing it would face "severe consequences" if the reports proved true.

"If China does that, China is going to have big problems," Trump told reporters on Saturday.

He had earlier announced that any country supplying military weapons to Iran would face immediate 50 percent tariffs with no exemptions.

Rejecting the allegations in full, Chinese Embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said, "China has never provided weapons to any party in the conflict; the information in question is untrue."

Earlier, citing three sources familiar with US intelligence assessments, CNN reported that China is preparing to deliver MANPADs, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile systems, to Iran within weeks, routed through third countries to conceal their origin.

The reports emerged days after a two-week ceasefire paused a conflict that began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched military action against Iran. As per reports,the war killed nearly 3,000 Iranians by Tehran's count, left at least 13 US service members dead, and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports say that, China has previously supplied Iran with dual-use components used in missiles and drones, but a direct government-to-government weapons transfer would mark a significant escalation.

Moreover, Beijing framed its position in broader terms, presenting itself as a stabilising force in an already volatile region. "As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfils its international obligations," the statement read. It called on "relevant parties" to do more to de-escalate tensions rather than inflame them.

The denial comes at a time of intense pressure on Iran, which is engaged in nuclear negotiations with the United States while simultaneously facing a sustained military campaign by Israel. Chinese arms reaching Tehran would significantly alter the regional balance and draw sharp condemnation from Washington and its allies.

Meanwhile, China and Iran have deepened ties in recent years, including a 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 and regular joint naval exercises. That relationship has drawn sustained scrutiny from Western governments, who have accused Beijing of giving Iran diplomatic cover at the United Nations and of enabling trade that helps Tehran withstand sanctions.

Washington has not publicly responded to China's denial. No independent verification of the weapons shipment reports has been made available so far.

The morning poll: Is Britain's benefits system out of control?

A report from the Resolution Foundation think-tank has found that big families on benefits will be £1,400 better off after Rachel Reeves' inflation-busting increases, while middle-class households are set to take a £480 hit due to the Iran war.

As a result, Labour has been accused of penalising hard workers with a benefits system that needs an overhaul.

 Imagine you’re the Welfare Secretary. Under your watch, unemployment reaches its highest level since a once-in-a-century pandemic. Benefit claims surge. Yet counter-intuitively, the number of people on benefits who are actually looking for work falls. And all this lands on your desk in a single week.

It’s time for a meeting without coffee with your Prime Minister – and a rocket under your plans to get people off benefits and back into work.

Unless, of course, your Prime Minister is having an even worse week, too busy fending off challengers for his own job to worry about other people’s jobs. And living in fear of backbenchers who want more spending on benefits, not less.

I speculate. But the facts are in plain sight: rising unemployment, rising benefit claims and fewer claimants job-seeking. The Government is presiding over a mass opt-out from work.

And what was the Government’s response? Not a rocket but a retreat.

This week we heard that Ministers will weaken job-search requirements for benefit claimants and give them more freedom to turn down jobs that don’t meet their aspirations.

The week before, we learned that the Government’s review of sickness benefits will take at least a year and has no ambition to save any money – despite mounting evidence that the sickness benefits system is unfit for our time.

Of course it’s good for people to get a job they like. But not if that means an extended subsidy from hard-pressed taxpayers whose own jobs are often a million miles from their childhood dreams.

There are people who genuinely need help with the costs of illness or disability, and there are conditions that make work extraordinarily difficult or impossible. Our welfare system should be a safety net for them to live with dignity.

So what should the Welfare Secretary be doing – and what should he tell the Prime Minister, if he ever gets that meeting?

He should be slamming his foot to the floor to fix the sickness-benefit system and urging Keir and Rachel to stop killing jobs and start backing businesses. Businesses are the engines of growth and opportunity, as Conservatives and the readers of this newspaper know.

To help him along, we’ve already published Conservative plans. For example: stop awarding sickness benefits for low-level mental health problems such as anxiety and mild depression. Support and work are better for people than being signed off to sit alone at home.

Return benefit assessments to face-to-face, using the empty assessment rooms I’ve seen around the country.

And reform the sick-note system, in which 93 per cent of the time people are signed off as unable to work at all for varying periods of time.

It looks like the Home Secretary may adopt our plan to stop benefits for non-Brits with Indefinite Leave to Remain. The Welfare Secretary should follow her example: swallow his pride, and copy-and-paste Conservative welfare policies too.

US-Iran peace talks end with no agreement after 21 hours of discussions — catch-up

As we’ve been reporting, US and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad, Pakistan yesterday for talks aimed at ending the war. No agreement was reached after hours of discussions.

If you’re just joining us, here’s what you need to know about the talks:

• At a press conference this morning in Pakistan, US Vice President JD Vance said that, after 21 hours of talks, no agreement had been made between Tehran and Washington, suggesting that the primary sticking point was Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program.

• Disagreement on “two or three key issues” prevented a deal being made, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said, according to state broadcaster IRIB.

• Iran currently has “no plan for a next round of negotiations,” the state-affiliated Fars news agency reported, citing a source close to the negotiating team.

• Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that his country will continue to mediate between Iran and the US after the talks concluded without a deal.

• The US failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation at the talks, according to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, parliament speaker, and leader of the Iranian negotiators, adding that diplomacy was “another method alongside military struggle to secure the rights of the Iranian nation.”

US failed to win Iranian trust at talks, says leader of Tehran team

The United States failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation at the talks in Islamabad, according to the leader of the Iranian negotiators, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

“Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary goodwill and determination, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we do not trust the other side,” Ghalibaf posted on X after the 21 hours of talks.

“My colleagues in the Iranian delegation put forward 168 constructive, forward-looking proposals, yet the opposing side ultimately failed in this round of talks to gain the delegation’s confidence.”

“America understood our logic and principles, and now it is time for it to decide whether it can gain our trust or not,” Ghalibaf added in his post.

Ghalibaf, who is speaker of the Iranian parliament and a veteran of Iran’s Islamic regime, said that diplomacy was “another method alongside military struggle to secure the rights of the Iranian nation, and we will never cease our efforts to consolidate the achievements of the 40-day national defense of Iranians.”