Can the Iran war really end in weeks? Trump thinks so

Is a ceasefire in sight?

The arrival of April seems to have changed the US narrative in the war against Iran that began on February 28.

From military parade to global conflict

What was supposed to be a quick and easy war for the United States and Israel has turned into a real military, economic, and image nightmare for the Trump Administration.

Will the United States leave Iran?

So much so, that Donald Trump announced, in statements to CBS News, that the United States will withdraw from Iran "in two or three weeks".

Non-negotiable condition of the United States

The US president has conditioned this decision on being certain that the Iranian regime will not be able to manufacture a nuclear weapon for years.

Wanting to reach an agreement?

In true Donald Trump style, the president asserted that "Iran is eager to reach an agreement, whether or not it materializes is irrelevant to the United States' timeline."

Pointing to other countries

In his speech, Donald Trump expressed his frustration that other countries had not sent military resources to support his war.

The troop withdrawal will come

However, he cautioned that he has no plans to withdraw his forces from the conflict yet. "At some point I will, but not yet," the US president stated.

Blaming the 'allies'

"Countries have to intervene and solve the problem. Iran has been devastated, but they will have to intervene and do their own job," said Donald Trump, referring to the countries that have denied him support in this war.

Resentful of the refusals

"If they're having trouble getting oil, let them come and get it, as is their right. They didn't want to help anyone. NATO is terrible, and everyone in it is terrible. It's time they did something for themselves," he insisted.

When will Operation 'Epic Fury' be complete?

To top off her remarks, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also told CBS News that "when Operation 'Epic Fury' is complete, gas prices will fall back to multi-year lows."

Iranian predisposition

For this to happen, the two sides must reach an agreement, and although it seems impossible, Tehran has shown a willingness to do so.

A desire for peace in Tehran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that Tehran has "the necessary will" to end the war.

European intervention

These statements followed Masoud Pezeshkian's meeting with Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, but with one essential condition for their implementation.

Iran's non-negotiable condition

Tehran is willing to make peace, provided there are guarantees that there will be no return to conflict, a condition included in the recent 15-point US peace plan.

Reopening of the Strait

Furthermore, Masoud Pezeshkian reminded Donald Trump that "the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly reopen, but not for you," referring to Iran's blockade of this vital maritime route. It's worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz was open before the war.

The threat that has changed the landscape

However, while an agreement is being negotiated, all parties are maintaining their offensives, with the added complication that Iran has implicated 18 major American companies as the next targets of its attacks if Washington does not cease its offensives.

So what now?

In fact, the willingness of Iran and the United States to reach a peace agreement caused stock markets to rise overall after several days of widespread declines and a sustained decline in March.

Major radiation update as Iranian nuclear power plant is hit – 'Deep concern'

The International Atomic Energy Agency has voiced "deep concern" over the risk of a nuclear incident after one of Iran's key power plants was struck today.

One security guard was killed and an auxiliary building was left damaged after the airstrike hit near the fence of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant at around 8:30am local time.

Director General of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, has now issued a warning, saying the facility or nearby areas must "never be attacked" as buildings at the site could contain vital safety equipment - and airstrikes could trigger a "nuclear accident".

"The IAEA has been informed by Iran that a projectile struck close to the premises of the Bushehr NPP this morning, the fourth such incident in recent weeks," the agency said in a statement posted to X this morning.

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The IAEA has been informed by Iran that a projectile struck close to the premises of the Bushehr NPP this morning, the fourth such incident in recent weeks. Iran also informed the IAEA that one of the site’s physical protection staff members was killed by a projectile fragment Show more

11:27 AM · Apr 4, 2026

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The IAEA has been informed by Iran that a projectile struck close to the premises of the Bushehr NPP this morning, the fourth such incident in recent weeks. Iran also informed the IAEA that one of the site’s physical protection staff members was killed by a projectile fragment and that a building on site was affected by shockwaves and fragments. No increase in radiation levels was reported. IAEA DG
@rafaelmgrossi expresses deep concern about the reported incident and says NPP sites or nearby areas must never be attacked, noting that auxiliary site buildings may contain vital safety equipment. Reiterating call for maximum military restraint to avoid risk of a nuclear accident, DG Grossi again stresses the paramount importance of adhering to the 7 pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and security during a conflict.

The Bushehr Nuclear Plant is located 750 kilometres (465 miles) south of Iran's capital, Tehran, on the coast of the Persian Gulf. An attack could have catastrophic effects on the region, as it could risk release of radioactive material into the surrounding area, including the seawater.

"Iran also informed the IAEA that one of the site’s physical protection staff members was killed by a projectile fragment and that a building on site was affected by shockwaves and fragments. No increase in radiation levels was reported."

It added: "IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi expresses deep concern about the reported incident and says NPP sites or nearby areas must never be attacked, noting that auxiliary site buildings may contain vital safety equipment.

"Reiterating call for maximum military restraint to avoid risk of a nuclear accident, DG Grossi again stresses the paramount importance of adhering to the 7 pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and security during a conflict."

Even a limited release could impact marine ecosystems and have serious knock-on effects for water security across the region, hitting desalination plants that many Gulf states rely on for their drinking water supply, potentially affecting millions of people.

Today's attack marks the fourth since the war began on February 28. According to early investigations, the blast has not damaged the plant's main facilities, or affected its operational status, Iran's Tasnim news agency said.

How the fate of a US pilot could change the course of the war

The fate of the missing crew member of the US fighter jet shot down in Iran could change the course of the war.

One of two pilots was rescued by US forces deep inside Iran, American officials said on Friday.

The rescue of the second would be an astonishing outcome for the US, but could also embolden Washington to keep striking.

With Donald Trump already considering a ground invasion, the sight of rescue planes and helicopters operating over Iran relatively unchallenged could offer encouragement for military planners.

Black Hawk helicopters were seen circling low over the mountain valleys alongside C-130 transport aircraft and reconnaissance drones after the US F-15 plane went down.

The mission to rescue the first crew member, at least, appears to have taken place without any further US casualties.

But the situation could escalate into several possible scenarios if the second crew member is captured by the Iranian armed forces or local militias.

The 1979 hostage crisis may offer a blueprint for this outcome. For 444 days, the fate of American diplomats held in Tehran dominated news coverage, shaped public opinion and contributed to Jimmy Carter’s electoral defeat.

If Iran broadcasts footage of the pilot, Mr Trump would face immediate pressure from Congress, military families, veterans’ groups and the American public to halt operations and negotiate his release.

Negotiated release

The second path involves Iran capturing the pilot but not immediately broadcasting evidence, instead using him as leverage in broader negotiations to end the war.

A captured pilot could be worth far more to Iran than just a ceasefire.

Rather than trading him for one concession, Tehran could bundle its demands – ceasefire, control over Strait of Hormuz transit and tolls, limits on future US military operations and possibly sanctions relief.

Iran has consistently sought to transform its wartime closure of the Strait of Hormuz into permanent peacetime authority.

Its parliament this week moved to formalise toll collection and shipping restrictions. A captured American pilot gives Tehran negotiating power it lacked when discussions were purely military.

Mr Trump, facing domestic pressure to rescue the pilot, would have to weigh whether accepting Iranian demands exceeds the political cost of a prolonged hostage situation.

This scenario plays out more quietly: no propaganda broadcasts and staged appearances, just Iran letting it be known it holds an American and is open to a deal.

It provides Mr Trump with a potential off-ramp.

He could frame a negotiated settlement that includes the pilot’s release as achieving multiple objectives: recovering American service members, degrading Iranian military capabilities and reaching an agreement.

Death and escalation

A pilot killed in capture or during a failed rescue would flip the entire dynamic. Instead of an off-ramp, it could become a trigger for a ground invasion.

If the pilot dies and evidence suggests Iranian forces killed him after ejection, or if a rescue attempt fails with American casualties, Mr Trump will face immediate pressure to respond.

Military families, veterans’ groups and Republican politicians would demand more than continued air strikes.

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Mr Trump suggested on Wednesday that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard in the next two to three weeks”, destroying electrical infrastructure and other critical systems.

But ground operations to seize islands or nuclear facilities, or establish control over parts of Iranian territory require justification beyond strategic objectives.

Despite a weakened military, Iran is believed to be well-prepared for a ground invasion.

The Zagros Mountains run 1,000 miles, with peaks above 14,000ft, valleys that funnel attackers into kill zones, and passes where a few defenders can potentially stop entire columns.

And beyond the terrain, there are the people. Local governors are paying cash rewards for captured or killed Americans, and tribal populations with deep traditions of resistance have answered the call.

They know the land – every ridge, valley and ambush point – in ways no invading force ever could.

The local mobilisation is a sign of deep patriotic sentiment among Iran’s rural and tribal populations, who maintain strong traditions of defending their territory despite often having a complicated relationship with the central government in Tehran.

The situation evokes comparisons to the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident in Mogadishu, Somalia, where a mission to capture militia leaders turned into a protracted urban battle after helicopters were shot down.

That operation, intended to last an hour, resulted in an 18-hour firefight that killed 18 American soldiers and hundreds of Somalis.

Before Friday, Mr Trump could manage the war’s timeline and scope. Now the pilot’s fate determines which direction the war could go next.

Russia threatens to 'nuke Europe off the face of the Earth' and blames Trump's Iran war

One of Vladimir Putin's top propagandists issued a horrifying warning to the West that Russia could "erase" Europe "off the face of the Earth". TV presenter and broadcaster Vladimir Solovyov issued the shocking message during his radio show, Full Contact. He said: "Europe has declared a war of destruction against us.

"This war can only be won by realising the risks, by simply understanding the risks, and by carrying out a decisive, devastating strike against Europe. We can't fight against Europe with conventional weapons. Europe needs to understand that we see their plans, we understand their plans, and therefore we will be forced to erase them off the face of the Earth with nuclear weapons."

Solovyov also said Iran is "behaving the right way" amid the war with the US and Israel. He said: "Can we stop being kind and erase the heck out of everything? 'Iran is behaving incorrectly', Trump says. Iran is behaving the right way."

The Putin mouthpiece added that Russia should act more like Iran, and act "harshly" against its adversaries.

He said: "If we want to win this war, we must understand the seriousness of threats. The supreme [leader of Iran] has no doubts. Those who have to prepare, develop and bring things for approval wherever needed - what about them?

"What are they thinking about? Maybe not now, maybe six months or one year from now, do they want to see Ukraine's ballistics strike Moscow? Or will we finally start to act, here and now? Harshly!"

Solovyov previously declared that Russia doesn't need to act through proxies and should "strike these dirtbags" itself, referring to Britain.

He raged: "Listen, are you a Communist or not? Stop fearing war! Are you a Communist or not? The first step is to strike these dirtbags and not hide behind anyone's back.

"When I was joining the ranks of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, I was taught to speak openly and honestly. If this is our enemy, we destroy him."

Oil skyrockets and stocks plummet as Trump gives bombshell speech on Iran

                              

Oil prices surged more than 5% and Asian stock markets tumbled on Thursday after President Donald Trump vowed in a primetime address to pound Iran "extremely hard" for the next two to three weeks and "bring them back to the Stone Ages".

More than a month after the US and Israel launched their first attacks, it remains unclear when the war will end. Nevertheless,in his first national speech on the conflict, Mr Trump declared that US military objectives in Iran had largely been met but signalled a fresh wave of intense strikes.

He added: "We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong."

He offered no fresh details on reopening the Strait of Hormuz - the vital chokepoint for a fifth of global oil supplies that Iran has effectively closed - and instead told dependent nations to "grab it and cherish it" themselves. The US, he insisted, no longer needed Middle Eastern oil. The remarks dashed hopes of imminent de-escalation, sending Brent crude jumping to over $106 a barrel and US crude above $104.

The fallout rippled across markets. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 1.4%, South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.8 % in early trading. US futures pointed to further losses. Analysts described the speech as lacking any concrete exit strategy or plan to secure the strait, fuelling fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

In the UK, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband seized on the turmoil to renew his push for renewables. Mr Miliband said: "The events of recent days are yet another reminder that the only route to energy security and sovereignty for the UK is to get off our dependence on fossil fuel markets... and on to clean home-grown power that we do control." Branding volatile oil and gas prices a "fossil fuel casino", Mr Miliband warned against gambling on geopolitical stability in an unstable world.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House adviser, called the situation a "five-alarm fire across the entire economy". The absence of a US commitment to secure the strait was the main trigger for the price spike. Mr McNally asked: "If the US isn't going to secure the Strait of Hormuz, who is?"

In Asia, the pain was immediate. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung urged lawmakers to approve a 26.2 trillion won (£14.5 billion) supplementary budget to cap fuel prices - reimposed for the first time in three decades - and hand out subsidies of up to 600,000 won (£330) to struggling households. Mr Lee said: "The crisis is not a passing shower, but a massive storm of unknown duration."

Thailand saw diesel prices surge above 44 baht (£1.00) per litre after further subsidy cuts, the second sharp rise in a week. US petrol prices have already climbed past $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, with analysts warning of knock-on effects for groceries and transport costs worldwide.

Democrats in Washington slammed the address as "incoherent". Senator Mark Warner said Mr Trump owed Americans answers on a conflict driving up prices for diesel, fertiliser and essentials. Senator Chris Murphy added that no one knew whether the US was escalating or de-escalating.

Even those who once championed the President have turned critical. Former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has recently broken with the administration, slammed the focus on "WAR WAR WAR" while ignoring the "fuel crisis" hammering household bills. Ms Greene posted: "You can't gaslight people and tell them that their bills are affordable."

A New York think tank, the Soufan Center, accused Mr Trump of leaving Gulf Arab allies "in the lurch" by appearing ready to walk away from the strait while their economies depend on energy exports.

Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex, captured the market mood: investors had sought a clear timeline for de-escalation that never materialised. Mr Hiroki noted that instead, Mr Trump projected confidence that the war would "wrap up soon" even as he promised more devastation.

With global energy prices soaring and no immediate relief in sight, the speech has crystallised fears of a protracted economic shock. Whether Mr Trump's aggressive posture accelerates a breakthrough or prolongs the pain remains to be seen - but for now, markets have delivered their verdict.

Oil Prices Could Hit $200 as Experts Warn Hormuz Closure Past Mid-April Triggers Full-Blown Global Fuel Crisis

 

Markets are betting on a quick end to the war, but emergency reserves will run dry within weeks and supply losses could double.

Oil prices are on track for their largest monthly surge on record as analysts warn the global fuel crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure will get dramatically worse if the waterway isn't reopened within weeks.

Brent crude has soared nearly 60% in March, closing at $112.78 (£85.43) a barrel on Monday and surging past $115 (£87.11) in early Tuesday trading after an Iranian drone struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai Port.

The attack on the Al Salmi, a very large crude carrier holding 2 million barrels of oil, caused a fire and raised fears of a spill, the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation confirmed.

Five weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, the strait that normally carries 20% of the world's oil supply remains effectively shut. But markets haven't fully priced in what's coming.

The Mid-April Supply Cliff

Marko Papic, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, estimates the war has so far removed 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day from global supply, roughly 5% of the world's total. That shortfall, he wrote in a research note this week, 'will double by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply' in history.

The reason it doubles comes down to timing. Three temporary buffers have been keeping prices from spiralling even higher. The International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action in the agency's history.

Washington temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. And President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested the war could end soon, keeping futures traders from pricing in worst-case outcomes.

All three cushions are expiring. Papic's analysis points to roughly 19 April as the moment when reserve releases and sanction waivers run dry. After that, the world has no fallback. Wood Mackenzie analysts warned last week that '$200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026.'

Petrol Prices Already Climbing Fast

The pain is already showing up at the pump. The US national average for a gallon of regular petrol hit $3.98 (£3.01) last week, up a full dollar from a month earlier, according to the American Automobile Association. In California, drivers are paying an average of $5.84 a gallon (£4.42), with some stations charging above $7 (£5.30).

The physical oil market tells an even more alarming story than futures. The Dubai benchmark, which tracks actual crude deliveries from the Gulf, has surged 76% since the war began to roughly $126 (£95.44) a barrel, more than double the gain in Brent paper futures.

A Global Scramble to Cut Fuel Use

Governments are already taking drastic steps. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on 24 March and moved government offices to a four-day working week. In Australia, Victoria and Tasmania scrapped public transport fares entirely, while the federal government halved fuel excise for three months. South Korea introduced fuel price caps for the first time in three decades.

Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers and central bankers met on Monday with the IEA, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. In a joint statement, the G7 pledged to 'take all necessary measures' to stabilise the energy market, including further releases of reserves.

What Happens If the Strait Stays Shut

Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average $85 (£64.39) a barrel across 2026, up from $77 (£58.33) in its pre-war forecast, and has raised its US recession probability to 25%. In a more severe scenario, the bank warned prices could exceed the 2008 all-time high of $147 (£111.35).

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas modelled a full-quarter closure and projected it would raise West Texas Intermediate crude to $98 (£74.23) a barrel while cutting global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points.

Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait to 6 April. Tehran has only hardened its position. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared it won't allow 'a litre of oil' through the waterway and warned crude will reach $200 (£151.50) a barrel.

Tuesday's tanker attack at Dubai Port is proof that the threat is growing, not shrinking.

For consumers from Manchester to Manila, every day the strait stays closed is another day prices climb higher, and reserves fall lower.