Trump’s peace deal has now gone full circle

 

Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to relinquish 50,000 square miles of sovereign territory and become a Russian vassal state in all but name. Those were his demands before Donald Trump regained the White House in January and they remain his objectives today.

After nearly eight months of sound and fury from Mr Trump and frenzied diplomacy from European allies, including the invention of a coalition of nations ready to deploy troops to guarantee Ukraine’s security after any peace agreement, the truth is that we are back where we started. A final settlement – or even a temporary ceasefire – remains just as elusive today as it was before Mr Trump’s political resurrection.

Two stubborn facts explain the intractability of this war. First and foremost, Putin has stuck to his maximalist demands. On Friday he condemned the idea of Western troops being sent to Ukraine, warning they would be considered “legitimate targets”.

More seriously, Putin insists on far more than keeping the territory he holds: he wants Ukraine to give up large areas that Russian forces have failed to capture.

Putin has unilaterally annexed five regions of Ukraine, totalling over 50,000 square miles. At this moment, Ukraine holds at least 5,000 square miles in four of those regions, including the provincial capitals of two of them, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

American officials claim that Putin no longer insists on Volodymyr Zelensky relinquishing these two cities – and their hundreds of thousands of inhabitants – which Ukraine’s armed forces have doggedly defended at immense cost. Instead, Putin will supposedly be satisfied by Mr Zelensky abandoning the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions still held by Ukraine’s army: at least 2,500 square miles with 250,000 people.

No Ukrainian leader could agree to these terms, particularly as the land that Putin wants includes vital fortifications. And there is no suggestion that Putin might repeal Russia’s annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, meaning that he will maintain his claim to both of these Ukrainian regions as well.

It would take overwhelming American pressure, including the “bone-breaking” sanctions threatened by Mr Trump’s allies, to compel Putin to scale back his territorial demands.

This brings us to the second reason for the absence of progress. Hardly anyone believes that Mr Trump might yet exert this pressure. He huffs and puffs, but he is not going to turn the screw on Putin.

Ukraine, by contrast, finds itself under constant US pressure. Mr Trump is supplying arms to Ukraine’s armed forces, but only for full payment on commercial terms. Every weapon that arrives is a source of US leverage over Mr Zelensky, explaining why Kyiv is now striving to reduce its reliance on Washington.

The only substantive change is that Mr Trump is now willing to discuss a possible American security guarantee for Ukraine after any peace agreement. A promise from the superpower to defend Ukraine is the prize that Mr Zelensky has sought from the very beginning.

But what kind of a commitment would this be? A vague form of words, or a cast-iron pledge modelled on Article V of the Nato treaty? Anything short of the latter would probably be worthless.

With that crucial question still unanswered, the reality is that the front line on the ground has barely changed since January.

Meanwhile, Putin still demands thousands of square miles that he does not hold and Mr Trump recoils from exerting maximum pressure on the Kremlin.

The only conclusion is that Europe’s bloodiest war for 80 years is set to grind on – and the last eight months seem to have been much ado about nothing.