Ancient DNA explains why some people live to be over 100


Italian centenarians have a higher proportion of DNA inherited from ancient hunter-gatherers compared to the general population, according to a new study that could lead to better understanding of ageing.

Studies have previously shown that "good" genes inherited from one’s ancestors, along with other factors such as the environment and daily habits, help people live longer.

While previous research has shown that Italy has one of the highest concentrations of centenarians in the world, the exact reasons for this remain unclear.

To understand this, scientists analysed the genomes of over 300 centenarians and nearly 700 healthy adults aged around 50.

Researchers then compared the DNA of these individuals with the ancient genomes of four groups that make up modern Italy.

These groups are descendants of Western Hunter-Gatherers, the original inhabitants of Europe after the Ice Age, as well as Anatolian Neolithic farmers, Bronze Age nomadic groups and ancient groups from the Iranian and Caucasus regions.

Scientists found that people who reached the age of 100 tended to have more Western Hunter-Gatherer (WHG) DNA than the average person.

"The present study shows for the first time that the WHG lineage... contributes to longevity in the Italian population,” researchers wrote in the study published in the journal GeroScience.

While the Italians sampled in the study carried a mix of DNA from all four ancient groups, only the WHG genetic material was found linked to longevity.

With every small increase in hunter-gatherer DNA, a person's chances of becoming a centenarian rose by 38 per cent, the study found.




Women were more than twice as likely to reach 100 years of age if they had a higher proportion of this ancient DNA compared to men, according to the research.


"We propose that the variants involved in this trait [longevity] may have been introduced into the Italian gene pool at a very ancient time," scientists wrote.

Researchers suspect these genes were likely favoured during the last Ice Age, when our ancestors had to survive extremely harsh conditions with limited food resources.



Some of these genes, scientists suspect, could be helping improve metabolism to process food more efficiently and protect the body from age-related stress.

“We showed a greater contribution from Western Hunter-Gatherer-related ancestry to Italian centenarians, thus suggesting that this pre-Neolithic genetic component, which has been linked to population shifts occurring within Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum, could be beneficial for longevity today,” researchers wrote.

New research shows that the body ages faster at 44 and 60



suddenly noticed more wrinkles, aches, or a general feeling of aging

If you've suddenly noticed more wrinkles, aches, or a general feeling of aging overnight, there may be a scientific explanation. Research indicates that aging doesn't happen gradually but in at least two accelerated bursts. According to a 2024 study from Stanford University, the human body experiences rapid aging around ages 44 and 60. Published in Nature Aging, the study analyzed over 11,000 molecules in the body, revealing that 81% undergo significant changes at these ages.

Biological vs. chronological age

Biological age reflects changes in proteins, metabolites, and gene activity over a lifetime, distinguishing it from chronological age celebrated yearly on birthdays.

Aging and illness risk

Accelerated biological aging in midlife might explain why illnesses like coronary artery disease increase at specific age points, particularly after 40 and 60.

Stanford University

Stanford researchers studied 108 diverse participants aged 25 to 75, collecting blood samples every three to six months for several years (up to about seven years in total) to track changes in body chemistry.

Key findings on hearth health

Heart health factors shifted at ages 44 and 60, with a protein linked to atherosclerosis increasing in participants' blood during these periods.

Fatty acids and cholesterol

At these same ages, the body's ability to produce unsaturated fatty acids, which help lower "bad" cholesterol, significantly decreased.

Heart disease correlations

While the study's connections to cardiovascular health were purely correlative, they suggest potential explanations for the increasing prevalence of heart disease with age.

Blood sugar spikes

Participants' blood sugar levels peaked in their 40s and 60s, hinting at a connection to type 2 diabetes as people age.

Unclear causes of changes

Scientists remain unsure why body chemistry shifts so markedly at these ages, with lifestyle factors like diet and exercise unexamined in the study.

Inflammation and aging

Researcher Juan Carlos Verján suggests that inflammation may drive the age-60 changes, noting a rise in blood antioxidant enzymes that counteract inflammation triggers.

Perimenopause

Age 44 aligns with perimenopause onset for some women, but similar patterns in men suggest shared, yet unidentified, causes for midlife aging boosts.

Aging differences between men and women


Both men and women exhibited the same age-related changes, ruling out sex-specific hormones as the sole explanation for midlife aging peaks.

Gaps in the study


The study didn't include key life stages, like puberty or advanced old age, limiting insights into age-related changes across the full human lifespan.

Sample size and diversity

With only 108 participants from California, the findings may not represent global populations with differing health and lifespan averages.

Regional lifespan differences

California's long average lifespan could skew results, prompting calls to study populations in regions with shorter lifespans.

Blood vs. tissue aging

The study focused on blood molecules, but aging can vary by organ, with some people's hearts aging faster than their kidneys or vice versa.

Tissue-specific aging

Aging may be more related to specific tissues than blood changes alone, requiring a broader exploration of how different organs age over time.


Role of epigenetics

Epigenetic changes, which alter gene activity without changing DNA, could also explain the dramatic midlife shifts observed in the study.

Causation vs. correlation

The study links blood changes to age-related diseases, but has yet to confirm if these changes drive diseases or are merely byproducts of aging.

Animal testing next

Animal experiments may help uncover why aging peaks occur at 44 and 60, providing more controlled insights into biological shifts.

Can bursts of aging be prevented?

Although the molecular changes associated with aging are complex, many underlying causes have already been identified. This understanding offers hope for mitigating some of aging's undesirable effects.

Adjust alcohol and caffeine intake

As you approach your 40s and 60s, reduce alcohol and caffeine. With age, the body struggles more to metabolize these substances, making moderation increasingly important.

Monitor cholesterol levels early

Track cholesterol closely from your 40s onward. Consult your healthcare provider about medications to manage cholesterol and other fats in the blood to support heart health.

Prioritize resistance training

Regular exercise, particularly weightlifting, helps preserve muscle mass as you age. Combine this with staying hydrated to counteract kidney issues and eating antioxidant-rich foods to combat oxidative stress.

Adopt a heart-healthy diet

Reducing red and processed meats, increasing vegetable intake, and following a balanced diet can help manage weight while lowering age-related risks of heart disease and other health conditions.

Optimize skin care

To preserve skin health, use products with retinoids or antioxidants like vitamin C. These ingredients boost collagen production and protect against free radical damage for healthier, youthful skin.

Prioritize sleep and minimize stress

Prioritizing sleep and minimizing stress are essential as you age. These habits support physical and mental health, promoting better resilience to aging-related challenges.

Stay active and maintain healthy weight

Consistent activity and avoiding excess weight can mitigate many of the adverse effects of aging. Regular movement boosts circulation, strengthens the body, and sustains overall vitality.

Empower your aging journey

Although we can't halt aging, understanding these molecular changes enables us to take proactive measures to improve our quality of life and age with greater ease.

A holistic approach

From diet and exercise to skincare and stress management, these preventive measures provide tools for managing bursts of aging. Taking action now can make the journey healthier and more rewarding.

‘Peace in Ukraine is impossible while Putin remains in power’



A deal between Russia and Ukraine to end their war with each other is impossible while Vladimir Putin is alive and in power, a former British ambassador to Moscow has said.

Sir Laurie Bristow, who served as British ambassador to Russia between 2016 and 2020, said the idea that Putin could be persuaded to stop fighting in exchange for territorial concessions was a “fantasy”, and that Western leaders must accept that Moscow’s position would not change as long as he is in office.

Sir Laurie, who later headed the UK mission in Kabul during the evacuation from Afghanistan, also said British and other Western governments should face up to the scale of that disaster.

“Specifically on Russia, it is: understand the nature of the problem,” he told The Telegraph’s Battle Lines podcast when asked how he would advise the Prime Minister if he were still a diplomat.

“The key to thinking about how the war might end is first of all do away with fantasies. There is not a deal to be done with Russia where you trade some Ukrainian land for some other Ukrainian land and somehow Putin’s happy and goes home. That isn’t going to happen.



“What [Putin] wants to do here is essentially assert the rights as he sees them of a great power to a sphere of influence – essentially an empire in central and eastern Europe – and that cannot be reconciled with our interests.

“The second fantasy to do away with is that this conflict is resolvable while Putin is in office. By which I think I mean while Putin is alive. For the conflict itself to resolve, Russia has to fundamentally change and that will not happen [while Putin remains in post].”

Why Europe needs to continue arming Ukraine

Nearly a year of efforts by Donald Trump’s White House to broker a ceasefire and peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv have so far failed to end the war.

A summit between Putin and Trump in Alaska in August ended without progress being made.

In November, the White House produced a 28-point peace plan that strongly aligned with Russian demands. It has since been rewritten after pushback from Ukraine and its European allies, including the UK, but there is no sign of an agreement being reached soon.



Russia has indicated that it will not compromise on several demands, including that Ukraine never be allowed to join Nato and that it surrenders parts of the Donbas region not currently occupied by Moscow’s forces. Last week, president Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that he could find an alternative to Nato membership but has ruled out surrendering land.

Sir Laurie, for his part, said Putin’s own public statements made clear that he was not interested in compromise.

European leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer, instead must accept they will have to continue to arm Ukraine in order to deter Russia from pressing ahead “not because we want the war to continue but because we want it to stop”, he said.

“If the Americans decide their interests are elsewhere, our interests are still in European security and there is no escaping from that. This is fundamentally about the UK’s security,” Sir Laurie added.

Leading Britain through foreign-policy crises

Sir Laurie served for 32 years in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and led Britain’s response to some of its most severe foreign-policy crises in recent decades.

He was in post when the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, used the Novichok nerve agent in an attempt to kill Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, triggering a crisis in UK-Russian relations.

In 2021, he was appointed British ambassador to Afghanistan, and was in Kabul when the country’s government collapsed and the Taliban seized power that summer. Alongside the Army, he was involved in overseeing the chaotic evacuation from Kabul airport.

Speaking about his experience in Afghanistan, he said it would be a mistake, and an insult to the many British soldiers who served there, to pretend that the UK’s presence there ended in anything other than a disaster.

“There is the fact that in 20 years, we didn’t manage to do what we set out to do in Afghanistan and the place is now back in control of the Taliban. And the price of that failure includes, on our part, 457 dead British soldiers. There are some facts to be faced here about what failure actually looks like,” he said.



“150,000 British servicemen and women served in Afghanistan. And I’ve had some of them ask me what was that all about? So I think we do have to be clear with ourselves about the price paid by our people for what happened there.

“The youngest of the soldiers doing that [evacuation] operation was 18 years old. The youngest of my staff, who were all civilian volunteers, was 25. There is [also] a really important point there about public service. What it takes for young people to go into that kind of environment and get out people who they have never met and do not know,” Sir Laurie added.

The lesson from the disaster of Afghanistan for policy makers today is: “You may not want it to be happening, but it is. So what are your choices? That is the thing to focus on here.”

NATO sounds alarm: Putin may be setting sights on the alliance



Rutte's warning about Russia

Mark Rutte, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), didn’t mince his words in a recent warning about Russia’s threat to the military alliance and the European Union.

The Russians are coming



“We are Russia's next target. And we are already in harm's way,” Rutte said during a speech in Berlin, as quoted by the website Politico. “Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured.”

Be prepared for the next world war



The NATO Secretary General warned that Moscow could be prepared to start a full-on world war against the military alliance within the next five years.

Putin's next target



According to CNN, Rutte affirmed that NATO was “Putin’s next target” and urged an increase on military spending and other measures to prepare for a possible continental war against Russia.

'The time of action is now'



“I fear that too many are quietly complacent. Too many don't feel the urgency. And too many believe that time is on our side. It is not. The time for action is now,” Rutte declared, per Politico.

The price of peace?



CNN highlights that in June 2025, NATO members agreed to increase their defense spending targets to 5% of their GDP in the next 10 years. This is more than double that of the previous rate of 2%.

Enemy at the gate?



“We need to be ready because conflicts are no longer fought at arm’s length. Conflict is at our door,” the NATO chief warned, per CNN.

Europe standing alone



Rutte recognized that European countries shouldn’t be so dependent on the United States when it comes to security, without directly addressing the clashes between the Trump Administration and the military alliance.

From coast to coast



However, the NATO Secretary General also pointed out that, for the US government, a strong military alliance is beneficial for both sides of the North Atlantic Sea.

The transatlantic bond



“It’s crucial we keep the transatlantic bond as it is today,” Rutte declared, as quoted by CNN. “You cannot defend the US without a safe Atlantic, and you need NATO to keep the Atlantic safe.”

Trump's peace attempt in Ukraine



The BBC writes that Rutte’s harsh words come as US President Donald Trump tries to reach out to Russian leader Vladimir Putin to bring a quick end to the war in Ukraine.

Putin is ready...



The BBC highlights that earlier in December, Putin stated that Russia wasn’t planning to engage in a war with Europe, but that his troops “were ready” in case The West wanted to start a conflict.

Fool me once...



However, the BBC reminds that the Kremlin gave similar statements in February 2022, just before Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory.

The blame game



According to the BBC, Putin has accused European countries of hindering US efforts of achieving peace in Ukraine. This comes after Trump’s original plan seemed giving too many concessions to Russia.

Putin's tailor-made peace



British network SkyNews describes Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan as resembling a “list of demands” outlined by Putin himself.

Zelensky says no



One of the salient points of the plan is that Ukraine would cede the whole of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, to Russia. This has been a dealbreaker for Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.

If that wasn't enough...



Adding insult to injury, SkyNews reveals that Trump’s plan would also force Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces and give up any pretensions to join either NATO or the European Union.

Some credit to Trump



Nonetheless, CNN writes that the NATO Secretary General praised Trump’s attempt to start talks between Moscow and Kyiv, arguing that the US President was the only man that could “break the deadlock with Putin”.

The Russian war machine isn't stopping



According to Politico, the NATO chief claims that the Russian leader has already demonstrated that he’s willing to let thousands die for his whims: “if he is prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us?”

Putin's way



“Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with NATO, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us,” alerted Rutte, as quoted by the BBC.

the latest warning signals




Is Putin’s war machine really crumbling? Inside the latest warning signals

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, new evidence is mounting that Russia’s military-industrial base — the backbone of its offensive capability — is under extreme strain. Factories producing tanks, aircraft, missiles and drones are reportedly collapsing under pressure, disruption and chronic resource shortages. A growing number of analysts now believe that the degradation of Russia’s defence sector may fundamentally weaken Moscow’s capacity to sustain the war long-term.

Industry Under Strain: Weapons Factories Falter, Supply Chains Fail

Once vast and well-resourced, Russia’s defence-industrial complex now shows signs of collapse. Major weapons-makers — including tank manufacturers, aircraft producers, and drone developers — are facing severe difficulties. Plants are reportedly burdened by delayed state payments, steep rises in component costs, and disrupted supply chains for vital electronics, optics, engines and other parts. (Defence Blog – Military and Defense News)

In many factories, older Soviet-era contracts are being honoured only at “fixed prices from 2019,” even though input costs have soared — forcing producers to operate at a loss. A number of firms have begun laying off staff or cutting production, with some reporting unresolved legal or debt disputes.

Because of restrictions on imports and the breakdown of traditional supply chains under Western sanctions, many of the specialized parts needed for modern tanks, aircraft or drones simply aren’t available anymore. Efforts at domestic substitution have often fallen short, leaving equipment production degraded or stalled.

Fuel Shortages and Economic Pressure: The War Economy is Buckling

Another major pressure point comes from fuel and energy — the lifeblood of any war effort. According to recent analysis, a sustained campaign by Ukraine against Russian oil refineries, pipelines, fuel depots and logistical hubs has substantially weakened Russia’s access to reliable fuel supplies.

This has forced Russia to ration or restrict domestic fuel consumption, and reportedly pushed prices to levels that strain ordinary citizens and military fuel logistics alike. The combined effect of rising costs, shrinking exports, and sanctions has choked off a key funding source for Russia’s defence budget, compounding the economic squeeze on Moscow’s war machine.

From Quantitative Force to Fragile Capacity: Why the Decline Matters

The deterioration of Russia’s military-industrial complex has deep implications for the conduct of the war. Historically, Russia’s ability to field large numbers of tanks, aircraft, drones and missiles helped sustain its offensive pressure. But with production faltering — and vital equipment increasingly difficult to supply or maintain — Russian forces risk losing their ability to replenish losses or launch future large-scale operations.

Analysts suggest this shift may transform the war — from one of mass materiel and brute force, to one of attrition, logistics, and resource scarcity. In effect, Russia may soon be fighting not just Ukraine, but supply-chain collapse, manpower shortages, and economic breakdown from within.

In this light, “war machine collapsing” may be more than a rhetorical flourish — it could mark a strategic turning point. If the pattern continues, Russia could struggle to maintain both its frontline operations and internal stability.

A Warning, Not a Conclusion — But With Real Stakes

It’s important to emphasise: Russia hasn’t surrendered. The defence-industrial decline is gradual, and Moscow remains capable of deploying force. However, the risks associated with sustained war — from budget shortfalls, declining morale, to shortages of equipment — are rising steadily.


Moreover, a stressed supply system often leads to corners being cut: older, inferior or poorly maintained equipment may see more frequent deployment; safety, maintenance and training standards may slip. That could increase accidental losses, breakdowns, or further degrade the combat effectiveness of Russian units. (Defence Blog – Military and Defense News)

For Ukraine and its supporters, this might offer a window of opportunity: continued pressure on Russia’s economic and industrial base — through sanctions, targeting logistics and energy, and supporting defenders — could tilt the odds.

For the international community, the situation underscores how hybrid strategy — combining military action with economic pressure, sanctions, and disruption of supply chains — can be decisive in modern warfare.

Russian troops in Mali targeted by Al-Qaeda threats



Will Russia soon be ousted from Mali?

Since the 2021 coup and the withdrawal of French forces, Mali's primary partner has been Russia, which protects the ruling junta in exchange for access to Mali's resources. However, this partnership could soon collapse under pressure from jihadists.

A country rich in minerals

Mali's recent history is inextricably linked to its abundant gold and mineral wealth, as well as to its strategic position at the intersection of North Africa and the Sahel.

"For centuries, Mali's resources and strategic position have attracted all kinds of conquerors, empire builders and opportunists seeking to profit from the illicit extraction of precious metals," notes the independent Russian media outlet The Insider.

Chronic instability

Faced with a first jihadist offensive in 2012, France intervened militarily in Mali, managing to limit the progress of Al-Qaeda and prevent this group from seizing mineral resources.

However, the country remains largely uncontrolled. At the beginning of 2020, the civilian government installed under pressure from Paris controlled only a third of Malian territory, Slate points out.

An ideal partner

Despite the junta's lack of democratic legitimacy, Moscow has proven to be an ideal partner for the Malian government.

The terms of the exchange were simple: Russia provided the regime with military protection, through the Wagner private company (now Africa Corps), as well as money and weapons. In exchange, it could theoretically plunder the country's rich subsoil at will.

The civilian population sacrificed

However, the population is paying a heavy price for protecting the regime. According to data from ACLED, an NGO that tracks civilian victims of conflicts worldwide, cited by France 24, 924 civilians were killed in incidents involving Wagner and the Malian army in 2024. This figure has risen with an additional 434 victims since the beginning of 2025.

Atrocities

"The list of incidents in which Wagner has been identified as having committed atrocities includes massacres, acts of torture and rapes of civilians," notes the NGO Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC), also cited by the French news channel.

The protection of Mali

According to information revealed by The Insider, Bamako was paying the Russians more than $10 million a month for the installation of military bases, the sending of around 2,000 mercenaries to fight jihadists, the training of the regular army, and the protection of President Goïta and his entourage.

The Russian companies

However, the Malian regime was in no hurry to fulfill its part of the contract. Thus, the three Russian companies explicitly created to exploit Mali's resources recorded no commercial activity between 2022 and 2024, as the concessions were awarded to local companies.

A compromise has been reached

Russia reacted strongly by suspending its military operations in the country. Moscow and Bamako finally reached a compromise in the summer of 2025 that included the construction of Mali's first gold-refining plant.

The complex is 62% owned by Malians and 38% by Russians, Slate points out. The production target has been set at 200 tons of gold per year.

The resumption of the jihadist offensive

Indeed, the coup leaders could no longer afford to do without Russian support in the face of the resurgence of jihadist offensives.

In September 2024, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), Al-Qaeda's Sahelian branch, attacked the capital, striking its airport, before dispersing into the surrounding villages. Army raids on its suspected positions failed.

The rallying of the population

A key point for understanding the current situation: a segment of the Malian population, angered by the abuses of the regular army and Russian militias, has rallied to Al-Qaeda by default. Some villages have thus sheltered jihadist fighters and refused to hand them over to the authorities.

A fuel blockade

In response, the central government severely restricted fuel deliveries to rural areas last July, hoping that this would prevent GSIM from carrying out its usual raids.

A tactic doomed to failure that caused gasoline prices to skyrocket to $130 a liter ($520 a gallon), more than the average monthly salary, according to The Insider. This, in turn, triggered a surge in other prices, particularly food, and fueled public anger.

A deteriorating security situation

“In September, Al-Qaeda and its allies controlled all the roads leading to the capital, intercepting or destroying most of the gasoline and diesel destined for Bamako,” The Insider further reports. Only a few convoys escorted by the army were still managing to reach the city, the media outlet describes.

Moreover, in the face of deteriorating security, the United States and European states evacuated their diplomats. They called on their nationals to leave the country while air routes were still operating, as jihadists controlled land routes.

An all-out offensive

France Culture reports that GSIM is currently conducting an all-out offensive against the government in Bamako.

Beyond attacks against the Malian army and the Africa Corps, this group targets industrial and mining sites, blocks major communication routes, and paralyzes the country's economic activity.

Political ambitions

The Islamists now wish to move to the next stage: implementing a political project. They no longer hesitate to call on the population to rise against the coup regime, whose abuses, and those committed by the Russians, they skillfully exploit.

The GSIM is also active in the social sphere, organizing food distributions and mediating inter-ethnic conflicts in the Sahel. "These functions, often neglected by the state, allow it to strengthen its territorial presence and gain credibility with the population," concludes the French public radio station.

A Somalia in West Africa?

According to The Insider, Islamist forces are transforming Mali into a Sahelian equivalent of Somalia: in this Horn of Africa state, authorities control almost nothing but the government quarter of the capital, Mogadishu, while armed groups thrive by exploiting the country's resources.

Bamako's reaction

Faced with this unprecedented offensive, Bamako is reacting by trying to turn the population against the jihadists, with large-scale tax cuts, and by pledging to suspend army raids if civilians rally to the government.

According to the independent Russian media outlet, "such tactical successes do nothing to resolve the deeper problem: the government's inability to control anything beyond the main city and a handful of gold mines."

Game over for Moscow?

As Slate points out, further military failures by the junta could lead to another coup led by actors willing to negotiate with the local branch of Al-Qaeda, which would exclude Russia from exploiting Mali's mineral wealth.

The coming months will tell us whether Moscow will be sidelined in Mali, like France was a few years ago, and whether Islamists will continue to extend their influence in this large African country.

Expert warns Ukraine is heading into a critical crisis



Ukrainian forces are in for a tough winter

Ukrainian forces will face heavy fighting in the coming months if peace negotiations with Russia fail to score a breakthrough, according to a recent intelligence assessment. Kyiv could be in trouble, but a bad peace might be even worse.

Ending the nearly four-year war

Peace negotiations have brought the idea that an end to the almost four-year war could be in sight. However, it's clear that Russia currently holds all the cards, and Washington is willing to lean on Ukraine to give up critical concessions.

Will Ukraine accept US terms?

Whether Kyiv will accept peace terms dictated by the United States is unclear, but what is clear is that if a peace settlement is not reached soon, Ukraine faces months of heavy defensive fighting ahead, according to one intel assessment.

An intelligence assessment

Colonel Ants Kiviselg is the head of Estonia’s Defense Forces Intelligence Center, and he noted that while Russian forces have made minor advances, Ukraine will be in for a very hard winter if peace negotiations don’t yield a breakthrough soon.

The main front is encircled

According to Colonel Kiviselg, who was cited by the Estonian public broadcaster ERR in a recent report, the main region where Russian forces have focused their offensive, the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad front, is now essentially encircled by Russia.

Ukrainian forces are in trouble

“The supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are under heavy pressure, and it is impossible to hold these settlements for long under such conditions," Colonel Kiviselg reported, according to a translation of his remarks from Ukrainska Pravda.

Increasing pressure elsewhere

Russian forces have also increased their pressure on other critical areas of the frontline in key regions like the Vovchansk and Kupiansk fronts in Kharkiv Oblast, as well as on the city of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, and near Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russia is achieving local goals

"Ultimately, Ukrainian forces are under severe pressure, and Russia has achieved local tactical gains,” Colonel Kiviselg explained. “Moreover, Russia still maintains superiority in manpower, artillery, ammunition, and equipment."

Heavy defensive battles

Colonel Kiviselg added that "if the talks do not result in a breakthrough acceptable to Ukraine, the frontline situation will remain extremely tense, and Ukrainian troops will have to engage in heavy defensive battles in the coming months."

A previous warning

According to Ukrainska Pravda, the Estonian Ministry of Defense has previously warned that the critical defensive Ukrainian cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast could fall to Russian forces in December. Russia has already claimed one win.

Putin’s Pokrovsk claims

On December 2nd, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia had captured Pokrovsk, marking what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted was the end of a 20-month campaign to take the critical Ukrainian defensive stronghold.

The situation is unclear

However, Ukrainian authorities refuted Putin’s claim. Even so, ISW analysts noted that “most military analysts believe Pokrovsk will eventually succumb,” to Russian forces, and added that “when it does, it will mark a Pyrrhic victory for Russia that is unlikely by itself to unravel Ukraine’s defense in the country’s east.”

Moscow’s 20-month campaign

According to the ISW, Russia’s 20-month campaign to take Pokrovsk only saw Russian forces advance roughly 25 miles (40 kilometers). Casualties have been high. However, there is no exact number of Moscow’s killed and wounded.

Heavy losses around Pokrovsk

The Center for European Policy Analysis reported in early November that Ukrainian commanders believed roughly 110,000 Russian personnel were concentrated around Pokrovsk at the time. The Washington-based think tank noted that daily average losses peaked at 700-800 at the time.

Putting things into perspective

During a November 7th press briefing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that roughly 25,000 Russians had been confirmed killed in October. A large majority of those losses reportedly happened on the Pokrovsk front, according to United24.

Pokrovsk will fall if it hasn’t yet

Whether Pokrovsk is taken now or fully captured in the coming months doesn’t matter. What does matter is that even if peace isn’t achieved, and even if Russia does up the intensity of its fighting, Ukrainian forces aren’t likely to break.

Ukraine has a difficult road ahead

However, the fight ahead will be tough. Moscow has already turned to its winter tactic of targeting Ukraine’s energy grid. Moreover, Kyiv is facing the possibility that Washington will withdraw what limited help it still provides if Ukraine shirks a peace deal proposal.

The only thing we know for now

What will happen in Ukraine in the coming months is still unclear. But Colonel Kiviselg’s assessment that Ukraine will face heavy defensive fighting is likely to prove true, especially since the Kremlin has signaled that it isn’t very interested in the peace plan currently on offer from Donald Trump and his administration.

NATO chief: Prepare for war with Russia





The West faces war with Russia on a scale not seen since the days of “our grandparents and great-grandparents”, the head of Nato warned on Thursday.

Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general, said Vladimir Putin had chosen the alliance as his “next target”, in some of his strongest warnings yet on the prospect of war spreading across Europe.

“Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured,” Mr Rutte said in Berlin.

“We need to be crystal clear about the threat. We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way.”

The assessment came towards the end of a frantic week of diplomacy, as Ukraine and its European allies submitted a new peace proposal to the Trump administration that will be discussed in Paris this weekend.

Donald Trump accused European leaders of being “weak” earlier this week and has outlined plans to pivot away from traditional security alliances on the Continent.

The US president is “extremely frustrated” with both Kyiv and Moscow, Karoline Leavitt, his press spokesman, said on Thursday.

She added: “He doesn’t want any more talk. He wants action. He wants this war to come to an end.”

There were reports on Thursday of tensions forming between European leaders, with Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, reportedly putting pressure on Kyiv to accept “painful” concessions, apparently on Washington’s behalf.



Meanwhile in Moscow, the Kremlin warned that it considered British soldiers operating in Ukraine as “legitimate targets”, following the death of a British paratrooper in an accident away from the front lines.

“For us, these so-called ‘peacekeepers’ will immediately become legitimate targets, everyone should understand this,” said Sergei Lavrov, Putin’s foreign minister.

Nato leaders have warned that Russia could attack a member state on its eastern flank, such as Estonia, within just a few years of the end of the current conflict in Ukraine.

Some countries, notably Poland and Germany, have introduced new military training for volunteers to improve defences. They are all also reassessing the availability of air raid shelters.

Later on Thursday, the Royal Navy disclosed it had recently tracked a Russian submarine, the Krasnodar, as it sailed from the North Sea into the English Channel. A Royal Navy Merlin helicopter and an RFA Tidesurge tanker monitored the submarine during the three-day operation.



In Berlin, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, announced that Ukraine had offered new proposals on giving up territory to Russia in the hopes of securing a peace deal.

At a press conference with Mr Rutte, Mr Merz said that a new offer on land concessions had been transferred to Washington, without giving details of its contents.

“It mainly concerns the question of what territorial concessions Ukraine is prepared to make,” Mr Merz said. He stressed that any decision on land concessions was up to the Ukrainian government and its people.

The German chancellor also suggested that talks would be held over the weekend between the US, European leaders and Ukraine to discuss the new proposals.

He said: “If we continue as imagined, there will be talks with the US administration over the weekend and there might be a meeting at the beginning of next week in Berlin. Whether the US administration will take part in the meeting depends on the papers we are working on [at present].”

The offer, drawn up with the support of European leaders, is a revised version of Mr Trump’s 28-point peace plan, which heavily favoured Moscow by requiring Kyiv to give up swathes of territory and reduce the size of its army.

Some proposals suggest Ukraine could, at least partially, withdraw its armed forces from the eastern Donbas region to form a demilitarised zone – but only if Russia agrees to also pull back its own troops from the area, The Telegraph understands.

The idea has been floated among Ukrainian negotiators as they look for a compromise to the US president’s demand for Kyiv to cede Donetsk and Luhansk as part of a peace deal.

A report on Thursday said Ms Meloni had urged Volodymyr Zelensky, her Ukrainian counterpart, to accept “painful concessions” for a peace deal.

According to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, tensions surfaced between the two leaders as Ms Meloni pressed Mr Zelensky to accede to US demands.

“There is sufficient evidence indicating that not everything went smoothly and that some differences were clearly expressed for the first time by both parties,” the newspaper stated.



During the Berlin press conference, Mr Merz said it would be a mistake to force Ukrainian leaders into a peace deal their people could not accept.

“The work we are doing together remains very difficult. Putin continues to ruthlessly mount his brutal war against the civilian population. At the same time, he is playing for time,” Mr Merz said.

“We want a ceasefire that is backed by robust legal and material guarantees. It would be a mistake to force the Ukrainian president into a peace that his population will not support after four years of suffering and dying.”

Mr Merz also sought to play down reports of a rift between the US and Europe on the Ukraine peace talks and the wider issue of America’s role in defending European security interests.

“We have no reason to doubt the agreements we have made with the US within the Nato alliance,” said Mr Merz, while Mr Rutte also said it was clear the US remained committed to Europe.

On Thursday evening, the Kremlin announced that Putin had spoken with Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, as the latter faces intense pressure from Mr Trump to stand down.

Putin sought to “reassure” Mr Maduro of Russian support, as the US military builds up forces in the Caribbean and American troops seized a Venezuelan oil tanker.

In Europe, the focus will shift over the weekend to Paris, where the details of the latest peace proposal are expected to be ironed out.

Ukraine is also keen to prevent talks over territorial concessions from happening without parallel discussions on the shape of the security guarantees the US could offer to deter a future Russian invasion.

Officials close to the negotiations have described “incredible pressure” by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to agree to a unilateral withdrawal from the Donbas before any other agreements are struck.

On Thursday, Russia said it had made fresh gains on the front line in Ukraine, where Putin is taking territory slowly and at a heavy cost to his troops.

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for Putin





Putin is thrilled with Trump

In a shift that has sparked concern across European capitals, the United States unveiled its new National Security Strategy in December 2025. According to The Guardian, the strategy document has notably diverged from previous affirmations of the transatlantic alliance. It characterizes Europe primarily as a challenge rather than a partner, citing issues such as "civilizational erasure," the impacts of mass migration, demographic challenges, political censorship, and a diminishing sense of identity within European societies.

"A gift for Putin"

This criticism of Europe, combined with Trump’s personal public attacks on European leaders, does more than strain relations: it plays directly into Moscow’s hands. As one analysis by CNN bluntly puts it, the deepening rift between Washington and its European allies is “a gift for Putin.”

A big change in priorities

The Washington Post highlights that the 2025 National Security Strategy marks a radical departure, not just in tone but in priorities. The United States under Trump now vows to re-orient its global presence toward the Americas, reviving what the administration calls a “Monroe Doctrine-style” approach for the Western Hemisphere.

Not reliable allies?

Europe, meanwhile, is cast in far harsher terms. According to Defense News, the strategy accuses European governments of allowing declining birth rates, limiting free speech, suppressing political opposition, and pursuing migration policies that undermine social cohesion, all of which, it argues, weaken their long-term reliability as U.S. allies.

Endorsing "patriotic European parties"

Moreover, the document explicitly endorses “patriotic European parties” as “political allies,” which sounds much like an open invitation to far-right, nationalist forces across the continent.

Russia no longer appears to be a principal adversary

This is not just a rhetorical shift: it signals a strategic recalibration. Where previous U.S. strategy would treat Russia as a principal adversary, the 2025 document relatively de-emphasizes Russia and even suggests pressing European governments to accept a rapid settlement in Ukraine and re-establish “strategic stability” with Moscow.

Trump's view on Europe: "weak" and "decaying"

In an interview with Politico on December 9 regarding the strategy’s release, Trump did not hold back. He described Europe as “weak” and “decaying,” blaming its perceived decline on immigration and a political culture overly concerned with being “politically correct.” He warned that if Europe “keeps going the way it’s going, many countries … will not be viable countries longer.

Trump said Zelensky needs to accept he's lost the war

During the Politico interview, President Trump also claimed that Russia has the “upper hand” in its war on Ukraine and added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needed to “start accepting things” regarding what Trump believes Ukraine needs to give up to end the conflict. “He’s going to have to get on the ball and start accepting things, you know, when you’re losing,” Trump said.

Dangerous comments

Comments like this from a U.S. president don’t just irritate diplomats; they weaken trust in Europe’s institutions at a time when political and military unity is especially important.

Kremlin spokesman says the National Security Strategy is "consistent with our vision"

From Moscow’s perspective, the unraveling of transatlantic unity is like a gift from the gods. In fact, CNN reports that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was pleased with the release of the 2025 National Security Strategy, calling it “consistent with our vision.”

Appealing to Moscow

Peskov elaborated further on December 8, saying: "The nuance we see in the new concept certainly appeals to us. It speaks of the need for dialogue and building constructive, good relations."

European cohesion at risk

Trump's tougher tone toward Europe undermines European cohesion. If many Europeans, including public figures and leaders, begin to question the value of their alliance with the U.S., the sense of shared purpose that underpins collective defence weakens.

A weak Europe will embolden Putin

By presenting Europe as internally divided, weakened, and culturally unstable, the new U.S. posture reduces the perceived cost to Russia of continued aggression. The Washington Post notes that if Europe appears unreliable, unable even to stand together, then Russia’s military adventurism becomes less risky. The fact that the U.S. now prioritizes strategic stability with Russia further validates Moscow’s long-term aspirations.

Trump's words fit in with Kremlin strategy

The Guardian notes that boosting nationalist, anti-immigration, and far-right groups in Europe fits in neatly with the Kremlin’s long-standing strategy of stirring identity politics and division within the Western alliance. It is a well-known tactic Russia has used for years to weaken European unity. As former Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins told Reuters, “the happiest country reading this is Russia.”

High stakes and tough questions

For European leaders, the stakes are high. The transatlantic security system, built on shared values, collective defense, and mutual trust, is under new strain. The possibility that the U.S. might pull back or reduce its commitment forces Europe to confront tough questions: Can it defend itself if it has to? And can the bond between Europe and the U.S. survive the political and ideological rifts made wider by Trump’s approach?

Is Trump trying to manipulate Europe?

Some critics argue that this strategy amounts to outside interference, encouraging far-right movements and reshaping Europe’s politics from afar. For Moscow, though, the advantage is obvious: a Europe that is more divided, less confident, and less focused on standing up to Russian aggression.

Changing Europe's defence strategies

Since coming into office in January 2025, the shift in U.S. policy under Trump has done more than generate diplomatic friction; it has reshaped Europe’s security landscape. By calling Europe a continent in decline, supporting far-right movements, and downplaying the threat from Russia, Washington has left a strategic gap.

Trump's big, beautiful gift for Putin

And for Russian President Vladimir Putin, this is a beautiful thing: a lack of unity among his principal adversaries is a great advantage. In this sense, the Trump-Europe rift is not just a policy blunder for Brussels and NATO: it is a welcome gift for the Kremlin.

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