Will Russia soon be ousted from Mali?
Since the 2021 coup and the withdrawal of French forces, Mali's primary partner has been Russia, which protects the ruling junta in exchange for access to Mali's resources. However, this partnership could soon collapse under pressure from jihadists.
Mali's recent history is inextricably linked to its abundant gold and mineral wealth, as well as to its strategic position at the intersection of North Africa and the Sahel.
"For centuries, Mali's resources and strategic position have attracted all kinds of conquerors, empire builders and opportunists seeking to profit from the illicit extraction of precious metals," notes the independent Russian media outlet The Insider.
Faced with a first jihadist offensive in 2012, France intervened militarily in Mali, managing to limit the progress of Al-Qaeda and prevent this group from seizing mineral resources.
However, the country remains largely uncontrolled. At the beginning of 2020, the civilian government installed under pressure from Paris controlled only a third of Malian territory, Slate points out.
Despite the junta's lack of democratic legitimacy, Moscow has proven to be an ideal partner for the Malian government.
The terms of the exchange were simple: Russia provided the regime with military protection, through the Wagner private company (now Africa Corps), as well as money and weapons. In exchange, it could theoretically plunder the country's rich subsoil at will.
However, the population is paying a heavy price for protecting the regime. According to data from ACLED, an NGO that tracks civilian victims of conflicts worldwide, cited by France 24, 924 civilians were killed in incidents involving Wagner and the Malian army in 2024. This figure has risen with an additional 434 victims since the beginning of 2025.
"The list of incidents in which Wagner has been identified as having committed atrocities includes massacres, acts of torture and rapes of civilians," notes the NGO Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC), also cited by the French news channel.
According to information revealed by The Insider, Bamako was paying the Russians more than $10 million a month for the installation of military bases, the sending of around 2,000 mercenaries to fight jihadists, the training of the regular army, and the protection of President Goïta and his entourage.
However, the Malian regime was in no hurry to fulfill its part of the contract. Thus, the three Russian companies explicitly created to exploit Mali's resources recorded no commercial activity between 2022 and 2024, as the concessions were awarded to local companies.
Russia reacted strongly by suspending its military operations in the country. Moscow and Bamako finally reached a compromise in the summer of 2025 that included the construction of Mali's first gold-refining plant.
The complex is 62% owned by Malians and 38% by Russians, Slate points out. The production target has been set at 200 tons of gold per year.
Indeed, the coup leaders could no longer afford to do without Russian support in the face of the resurgence of jihadist offensives.
In September 2024, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), Al-Qaeda's Sahelian branch, attacked the capital, striking its airport, before dispersing into the surrounding villages. Army raids on its suspected positions failed.
A key point for understanding the current situation: a segment of the Malian population, angered by the abuses of the regular army and Russian militias, has rallied to Al-Qaeda by default. Some villages have thus sheltered jihadist fighters and refused to hand them over to the authorities.
In response, the central government severely restricted fuel deliveries to rural areas last July, hoping that this would prevent GSIM from carrying out its usual raids.
A tactic doomed to failure that caused gasoline prices to skyrocket to $130 a liter ($520 a gallon), more than the average monthly salary, according to The Insider. This, in turn, triggered a surge in other prices, particularly food, and fueled public anger.
“In September, Al-Qaeda and its allies controlled all the roads leading to the capital, intercepting or destroying most of the gasoline and diesel destined for Bamako,” The Insider further reports. Only a few convoys escorted by the army were still managing to reach the city, the media outlet describes.
Moreover, in the face of deteriorating security, the United States and European states evacuated their diplomats. They called on their nationals to leave the country while air routes were still operating, as jihadists controlled land routes.
France Culture reports that GSIM is currently conducting an all-out offensive against the government in Bamako.
Beyond attacks against the Malian army and the Africa Corps, this group targets industrial and mining sites, blocks major communication routes, and paralyzes the country's economic activity.
The Islamists now wish to move to the next stage: implementing a political project. They no longer hesitate to call on the population to rise against the coup regime, whose abuses, and those committed by the Russians, they skillfully exploit.
The GSIM is also active in the social sphere, organizing food distributions and mediating inter-ethnic conflicts in the Sahel. "These functions, often neglected by the state, allow it to strengthen its territorial presence and gain credibility with the population," concludes the French public radio station.
According to The Insider, Islamist forces are transforming Mali into a Sahelian equivalent of Somalia: in this Horn of Africa state, authorities control almost nothing but the government quarter of the capital, Mogadishu, while armed groups thrive by exploiting the country's resources.
Faced with this unprecedented offensive, Bamako is reacting by trying to turn the population against the jihadists, with large-scale tax cuts, and by pledging to suspend army raids if civilians rally to the government.
According to the independent Russian media outlet, "such tactical successes do nothing to resolve the deeper problem: the government's inability to control anything beyond the main city and a handful of gold mines."
As Slate points out, further military failures by the junta could lead to another coup led by actors willing to negotiate with the local branch of Al-Qaeda, which would exclude Russia from exploiting Mali's mineral wealth.
The coming months will tell us whether Moscow will be sidelined in Mali, like France was a few years ago, and whether Islamists will continue to extend their influence in this large African country.
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