UNITED NATIONS, Jun 26 (IPS) - The Trump administration announced on June 23 that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran had been reached following 10 days of conflict between the two nations and the United States’ bombardment of three nuclear sites in Iran. The establishment of the ceasefire will return focus back to the conflict between Israel and Palestine and the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
The United Nations estimates that 610 Iranians and 28 Israelis were killed due to the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran. With the cessation of the conflict, the region can recover from these damages, as well as come closer to stability, peace and a chance to focus on their already existing humanitarian crises.
Amid fears of an escalating global conflict, humanitarian organizations expressed concern about the far-reaching humanitarian implications in regions such as Gaza and the West Bank, where conditions are already dire. With the ongoing blockade in Gaza, civilians are unable to acquire food, clean water, humanitarian aid, healthcare and fuel. These regions have also been subject to routine bombardment by Israel, and conditions worsened after some communities were impacted by the strikes between Israel and Iran, according to American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA).
“Nothing since WWII can equal it, with bombs deliberately targeting hospitals and civilians and UN agencies like the World Food Program and World Health Organization being blocked,” James E. Jennings, president of Conscience International and Executive Director of U.S. Academics for Peace, told IPS.
The 10 day conflict between Israel and Iran led to increased military raids, arrests, violence and damage to infrastructure. The period shifted focus away from Palestinians, reducing donations and advocacy.
The ceasefire and potential de-escalation of tensions between its neighbors should bring the international focus back to Palestine’s humanitarian crisis.
With Iran severely weakened, former New York University (NYU) international relations professor Dr. Alon Ben-Meir says the country will not be able to support its Axis of Resistance in the near future. He predicts Iran will attempt to come to an agreement with the U.S. in regard to its nuclear program. Israel, on the other hand, is now in a powerful position as it has diminished Hamas’, Hezbollah’s, and now Iran’s threat against them, according to Ben-Meir.
“Sadly, Israel’s triumphant assault on Iran may further embolden Netanyahu to try to attain his ‘total victory’ in Gaza, which, in my view, is elusive at best,” Ben-Meir said.
Israel seemed to confirm this prediction.
“Now the focus shifts back to Gaza—to bring the hostages home and to dismantle the Hamas regime,” Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli military chief, said.
With Iran and Hamas temporarily out of the equation, Ben-Meir said Trump has a chance to demand an end to the conflict between Israel and Palestine and “to think in terms of changing the dynamic” of the conflict.
Ben-Meir said that only if Trump pushes for an end to the war can a resolution be reached. Yet, he said that while Netanyahu remains in power, it is unlikely that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will end, which will still leave the region in an unstable state.
“Although this will not lead to a regional peace that would include all the players, it has created a more positive regional atmosphere,” he said.
Ben Meir also predicts that the cessation of tensions with Iran is unlikely to change the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
“Netanyahu is riding high and will relent only if Trump tells him to stop using humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians in Gaza to pressure Hamas to release the remaining hostages,” he said.
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on June 22 after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites. Following pushing for peace in the region, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres praised the ceasefire.
“I urge the two countries to respect it fully,” Guterres wrote on X. “The fighting must stop. The people of the two countries have already suffered too much.”
Conclusion:
As recent developments have shown, this is a fast-moving situation, and there’s still a lot we don’t know about what might happen next.
And while Mr Trump—and some other world leaders—have proclaimed the ceasefire a success, whether or not the agreement will ultimately lead to renewed negotiations with Iran remains to be seen.
Crucially, there appears to be some doubt over just how effective the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities actually were. Reports have claimed an initial Pentagon intelligence assessment estimated that the bombings likely only set Iran’s nuclear programme back by a matter of months. The White House has claimed this assessment is “flat out wrong”, and Mr Trump has claimed Iran’s nuclear sites were “completely destroyed”.
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